By David Pérez Esparza, Eugenio Weigend Vargas, Tony Payan and Carlos Pérez Ricart

Gun shows are public gatherings where licensed gun dealers and private gun owners use formal and informal venues to exchange information or sell and buy firearms, accessories, and ammunition. A major challenge is that gun shows, unlike established business locations, can be considered gray zones where regulatory loopholes facilitate the movement of legal firearms to illegal domains both domestically and internationally. Given this, they tend to feed into gun trafficking schemes. Despite this, gun shows are poorly monitored. Moreover, these events are not tracked by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) and what little is known comes from academic studies, press releases, or outdated ATF reports. To address this gap, update information, and generate a better understanding of how gun shows connect with gun trafficking, we generated a gun show dataset in the US from 2011 to 2019. We compiled information on promoted gun shows from three main sources, The National Rifle Association Magazine and the websites Gun Show Trader and Shooting Illustrator. We completed our dataset by looking at other minor sources that promoted gun shows. Our dataset encompasses information of 20,691 gun shows and suggests that 71% of them occurred in states where background checks were not required during gun sales between private individuals. We argue that scholars and practitioners will find in this dataset an original tool to analyze gun shows and their impact on public security and public health.

  Journal of Illicit Economies and Development. 2022, 11pg

By Claudia Wiehler and Medinat Malefakis

Nigeria has functioned as an anchor of stability in West Africa, a region that has been shaken by seven coups in three years. Yet, Nigeria is also grappling with several internal security crises including a violent-extremist insurgency and large-scale banditry, putting into question Nige ria’s ability to maintain this role. Reports about collaborations between bandit groups and Boko Haram extremists create fear about an unholy alliance across the country’s Northern region, potentially linking violent extremist groups in Mali and Niger with those in the Lake Chad region. It is against this backdrop of severe civilian suffering and potential transnational ripple effects that we argue for a pragmatic and rapid intervention in the banditry crisis. At this point, it is time to make ‘peace’ with the bandits.  

  Policy Perspectives Vol. 12/1. April 2024, 4pg

By Jocelyn J. Bélanger, N. Pontus Leander, Maximilian Agostini, Jannis Kreienkamp, Wolfgang Stroebe

This research examines the notion of defensive gun ownership using the Dualistic Model of Passion. We hypothesized that an obsessive (vs. harmonious)passion for guns would be associated with a belief in a dangerous world (BDW).We expected this relationship to intensify in threatening contexts, leading to a more expansive view on defensive gun ownership. We tested this hypothesis across three threat contexts: a gun‐control message (Study 1,N= 342), a live shooting simulation (Study 2,N= 398), and the aftermath of the Christchurch mass shootings (Study 3,N= 314). In the experimental Study 1, exposure to a gun‐control message increased the intention to purchase guns among those with an obsessive passion (OP) for guns. Study 2 revealed that BDW mediated the relationship between OP and assertive modes of protection, the desire to purchase high‐stopping‐power guns, and anti‐Black racial bias in a shooting task. Study 3 showed that knowledge of the Christchurch attack intensified thelink between OP and BDW, leading to increased support for gun access, willingness to act as a citizen‐protector, and prejudice against Muslims.Comprehending these dynamics can assist policymakers incrafting messaging campaigns for firearm regulation and public safety measures that are more effective.

Aggressive Behavior, Volume 50, Issue 3. May 2024, 17pg

By Muhammad Hudhud, Scott Proescholdbell, Tammy Norwood, Crystal Cavalier-Keck, Ronny A Bel

Like other minoritized populations, American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) females experience disparate morbidity and mortality outcomes to that of the general US population. This study identified discrepancies in reporting of AI/AN female decedents between the North Carolina Violent Death Reporting System (NC-VDRS) and an online, user-generated database. Female AI/AN decedent data of all ages were collected from the NC-VDRS and compared against that of the publicly available North Carolina Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women (MMIW NC) database for the study period, 2004–2019. Twenty-four of the 72 cases matched between data systems (33.3%). Substantive differences between the NC-VDRS and the MMIW NC database were found. Future efforts should be directed towards supporting Indigenous communities with the comprehensive data the NC-VDRS can provide. This paper highlights statewide public health systems like the NC-VDRS supporting community efforts to understand, advocate for, and disseminate information on MMIW.

Forensic Sciences Research, Volume 9, Issue 1. March 2024, 3pg

By Richard Matzopoulos

Not much is known about the perpetrators of male homicide in South Africa, which has rates seven times the global average. For the country’s first ever male homicide study we describe the epidemiology of perpetrators, their relationship with victims and victim profiles of men killed by male versus female perpetrators. We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of routine data collected through forensic and police investigations, calculating victim and perpetrator homicide rates by age, sex, race, external cause, employment status and setting, stratified by victim-perpetrator relationships. For perpetrators, we reported suspected drug and alcohol use, prior convictions, gang-involvement and homicide by multiple perpetrators. Perpetrators were acquaintances in 63% of 5594 cases in which a main perpetrator was identified. Sharp objects followed by guns were the main external causes of death. The highest rates were recorded in urban informal areas among unemployed men across all victim-perpetrator relationship types. Recreational settings including bars featured prominently. Homicides clustered around festive periods and weekends, both of which are associated with heavy episodic drinking. Perpetrator alcohol use was reported in 41% of homicides by family members and 50% by acquaintances. Other drug use was less common (9% overall). Of 379 men killed by female perpetrators, 60% were killed by intimate partners. Perpetrator alcohol use was reported in approximately half of female-on-male murders. Female firearm use was exclusively against intimate partners. No men were killed by male intimate partners. Violence prevention, which in South Africa has mainly focused on women and children, needs to be integrated into an inclusive approach. Profiling victims and perpetrators of male homicide is an important and necessary first step to challenge prevailing masculine social constructs that men are neither vulnerable to, nor the victims of, trauma and to identify groups at risk of victimisation that could benefit from specific interventions and policies.

BMJ Global Health; Volume 9, Issue 4. 2024, 12pg

By Deborah Manzi, Francesco Calderoni

This research analyses the resistance and resilience of drug trafficking organizations against law enforcement interventions targeting specific operational roles.

Methods

Using the MADTOR agent-based model, which draws on extensive data from a significant police operation and relevant literature, we simulate the complex dynamics of a major cocaine trafficking and dealing group. The study examined the impact of different arrest scenarios targeting traffickers, packagers, or retailers, on the organization's survival, member count, and revenue.

Results

The findings reveal that interventions targeting traffickers lead to the most significant disruptions, while focusing on retailers also yields substantial impacts. Arresting packagers causes limited disruption.

Conclusions

The findings underscore the importance of role-specific law enforcement approaches in dismantling drug trafficking organizations, considering each role's distinct characteristics and operational importance.

Journal of Criminal Justice, Volume 91, March–April 2024, 102165, 13 pages

By Logan Seacrest and Jillian Snider  

   For the past decade, policymaker and public attention has focused on police use of force like never before. Yet due to a lack of standardized data, the national debate on this sensitive topic has occurred largely in an information vacuum. Using interviews with active law enforcement personnel and other primary research, this paper explores the theoretical and legal framework for police use of force; chronicles the history of data-collection efforts; describes the current information and legislative landscape; and provides real-world examples of innovative data systems. We conclude with a series of recommendations to help law enforcement leaders and policymakers design use-of-force data systems and craft practical, evidence-based transparency laws.

R Street Policy Study No. 302, 2024. 26p.

By The Transnational Alliance to Combat Illicit Trade 

The escalating global demand for food highlights the critical role of increasing agricultural productivity and securing long-term food security. Agro-chemicals, especially pesticides, are essential for modern agriculture, protecting crops from pests and diseases and supporting the growth in agricultural productivity.

However, the increase in demand for crop protection has also paved the way for criminals to exploit agricultural supply chains to introduce unauthorized pesticides. This issue is further exacerbated by online sales on e-commerce platforms, which, while offering new avenues for the sale of pesticides, have also become conduits for trading illicit pesticides.
 
TRACIT’s report, Tackling the sale of illicit pesticides on e-commerce platforms: Risks, challenges and solutions, identifies the scale of trade of illicit pesticides on e-commerce platforms and the vulnerabilities that expose platforms to illicit traders. The primary objective of the report is to examine the structural vulnerabilities in the operations of e-commerce platforms that can be exploited by criminals to sell illicit pesticides online. It goes on to present examples of listings of illicit pesticides found on major ecommerce platforms worldwide. 
 
Key findings

• Major e-commerce platforms worldwide sell illicit pesticides, in circumvention of national regulatory controls. 

• Ongoing trade in illicit pesticides necessitates stricter, government-mandated due diligence controls on e-commerce platforms.

• Platforms must ensure greater compliance with existing law and improve enforcement of their own policies to prevent the sale of illicit pesticides.

In an effort to advance progress in these areas, this report delineates recommendations for intergovernmental organizations, national government and e-commerce platforms.
 
Critical recommendations

1. Ensure that sellers have a license. National regulations should require e-commerce platforms to check pesticide sellers’ credentials and verify that pesticide sellers have a license to trade pesticides. 

2. Store such licenses for verification by regulatory authorities.: National regulations should mandate e-commerce platforms to verify and store seller information including dealer licenses for greater transparency and for recourse in the case of illicit pesticides. 

3. Verify that pesticides sold on platforms are registered in the country of use: National regulations should mandate e-commerce platforms to verify that sellers put up for sale only those pesticides that are registered in the country of use. In the case of cross-border transactions, regulations should require e-commerce platforms to verify registrations or authorization certificates in the country of import and the country of export ahead of permitting such transactions.

New York: TRACIT, 2024. 65p

By The Violence Policy Center

For the past 25 years, the Violence Policy Center (VPC) has published its annual study When Men Murder Women. Released for Domestic Violence Awareness Month in October, the studies analyzed data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR) and ranked the states by their rates of females killed by males in single victim/single offender incidents. In addition to ranking the states by this homicide victimization rate, the studies also offered information on the age and race of these female homicide victims, victim to offender relationship, circumstance, and weapon type. The most recent edition (released in 2022 and which analyzed 2020 SHR data), was the final report to be published by the VPC using SHR data. In January of 2021, the FBI changed the way crime data are collected and reported, which has impacted the reliability of subsequent data. That year, the FBI retired the SHR system and replaced it with the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). While NIBRS will eventually provide much more comprehensive and robust crime data compared to the SHR, transitioning law enforcement agencies to the new data collection and reporting system has been slow and burdensome. Indeed, many law enforcement agencies did not transition to NIBRS by January of 2021, which has had a significant impact on the reliability of 2021 crime data. After a careful analysis of that year’s crime data, the VPC has determined that current NIBRS data are not reliable for state-by-state gun violence research as required by When Men Murder Women. 

As a result, for the time being the VPC is unable to continue researching and publishing When Men Murder Women, although we hope that we will be able to resume publication of the report in the future. Though other national data sources contain information about homicides, these data sources do not contain the detailed information that was collected and publicly reported by the SHR (for example, sex of offender, type of firearm, relationship, and circumstance).b Over its 25-year publication history, the findings of the report have: led to the passage of laws that protect women and children from domestic violence, including legislation focused specifically on removing guns from the hands of domestic violence offenders; resulted in statewide public education campaigns; spurred the establishment of domestic homicide review boards; and, been repeatedly cited in the support of legislation and policies that protect women and children, including the federal Violence Against Women Act (VAWA).   

Washington, DC: Violence Policy Center, 2023. 21p.

By Volkan Topalli, Timothy Dickinson, and Scott Jacques

Active offender research relies on the collection of data from noninstitutionalized criminals and has made significant contributions to our understanding of the etiology of serious crime. This review covers its history as well as its methodological, scientific, and ethical pitfalls and advantages. Because study subjects are currently and freely engaging in crime at the time of data collection, their memories, attitudes, and feelings about their criminality and specific criminal events are rich, detailed, and accurate. Contemporary approaches to active offender research employ systematized formats for data collection and analysis that improve the validity of findings and help illuminate the foreground of crime. Although active offender research has traditionally relied on qualitative techniques, we outline the potential for it to make contributions via mixed methods, experiments, and emerging computational and technological approaches, such as virtual reality simulation studies and agent-based modeling.  

Annu. Rev. Criminol. 2020. 3:189–215   

By Terra Wiens

In 2001, the United States experienced a historic demographic change. For the first time, Hispanics became the largest minority group in the nation, exceeding the number of Black residents.2 With a population in 2020 of 62.1 million, Hispanics represent 18.7 percent of the total population of the United States.3 This study is intended to report on Hispanic homicide victimization and suicide in the United States, the role of firearms in homicide and suicide, and overall gun death figures. Recognizing this demographic landscape, the importance of documenting such victimization is clear. Indeed, studies have found that Hispanic individuals are more likely to die by firearm homicide compared to white, non-Hispanic individuals.  

Washington, DC: Violence Policy Center, 2023. 23p.

By Marty Langley and VPC Executive Director Josh Sugarmann.  

To educate the public and policymakers about the reality of black homicide victimization, each year the VPC releases Black Homicide Victimization in the United States (follow this link to download the study as a pdf). This annual study examines black homicide victimization at the state level utilizing unpublished Supplementary Homicide Report data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The study ranks the states by their rates of black homicide victimization and offers additional information for the 10 states with the highest black homicide victimization rates.

Washington, DC: Violence Policy Center, 2023. 18p.

By Stephanie Holmes Didwania

Fraud is one of the most prosecuted crimes in the United States, yet scholarly and journalistic discourse about fraud and other financial crimes tends to focus on the absence of so-called “white-collar” prosecutions against wealthy executives. This Article complicates that familiar narrative. It contains the first nationwide account of how the United States actually prosecutes financial crime. It shows—contrary to dominant academic and public discourse—that the government prosecutes an enormous number of people for financial crimes and that these prosecutions disproportionately involve the least advantaged U.S. residents accused of low-level offenses. This empirical account directly contradicts the aspiration advanced by the FBI and Department of Justice that federal prosecution ought to be reserved for only the most egregious and sophisticated financial crimes. This article argues, in other words, that the term “white-collar crime” is a misnomer.

To build this empirical foundation, the Article uses comprehensive data of the roughly two million federal criminal cases prosecuted over the last three decades matched to county-level population data from the U.S. Census. It demonstrates the history, geography, and inequality that characterize federal financial crime cases, which include myriad crimes such as identity theft, mail and wire fraud, public benefits fraud, and tax fraud, to name just a few. It shows that financial crime defendants are disproportionately low-income and Black, and that this overrepresentation is not only a nationwide pattern, but also a pattern in nearly every federal district in the United States. What’s more, the financial crimes prosecuted against these overrepresented defendants are on average the least serious. This Article ends by exploring how formal law and policy, structural incentives, and individual biases could easily create a prosecutorial regime for financial crime that reinforces inequality based on race, gender, and wealth.

Northwestern Law & Econ Research Paper Forthcoming, outhern California Law Review, Vol. 97, 2024, 54 pages

By Matt Hopkins, Rachel Keighley, Teela Sanders

  Thinking about organised crime as an ecosystem is not only novel but also offers much potential to add to the theoretical and policy-based literature in this area. While organised crime is often analysed as relationships between criminal groups and consumers of illicit goods/services, little work has analysed specific forms of organised crime activities as ecosystems where different constituent parts are dependent upon each other for the crime activity to occur. This paper analyses the organisation of sexual exploitation by entrepreneurial organised crime groups sell ing sex in the United Kingdom. Based upon 30 interviews with 23 law enforcement forces in England and Wales and five interviews with Adult Service Website Opera tors; it identifies how an ecosystem is built that ensures (a) profit generation and (b) avoidance of legal prosecution. Our analysis not only illustrates how a market ‘sup ply’ and ‘demand’ ecosystem is generated through mutually convenient ‘organiser’, ‘marketer’ and ‘buyer’ relationships, but also how the roles of these actors ensure sexual exploitation continues. Keywords Organised crime · 

Trends in Organized Crime, trends in Organized Crime. 2024, 20pg

By Luca Giommoni, Ruth Ikwu

   This study identifies the presence of human trafficking indicators in a UK-based sample of sex workers who advertise their services online. To this end, we devel oped a crawling and scraping software that enabled the collection of information from 17, 362 advertisements for female sex workers posted on the largest dedicated platform for sex work services in the UK. We then established a set of 10 indicators of human trafficking and a transparent and replicable methodology through which to detect their presence in our sample. Most of the advertisements (58.3%) contained only one indicator, while 3,694 of the advertisements (21.3%) presented 2 indicators of human trafficking. Only 1.7% of the advertisements reported three or more indica tors, while there were no advertisements that featured more than four. 3, 255 adver tisements (19.0%) did not contain any indicators of human trafficking. Based on this analysis, we propose that this approach constitutes an effective screening process for quickly identifying suspicious cases, which can then be examined by more compre hensive and accurate tools to identify if human trafficking is occurring. We conclude by calling for more empirical research into human trafficking indicators

Trends in Organized Crime. 2024, 14pg

By 
Richard C Harruff, Robert Johnston, and U L M S Perera 

Asphyxia due to strangulation is an uncommon but important modality of homicide that tends to disproportionately involve female victims. The present study was designed to investigate the circumstances, motivations, and injuries associated with strangulation homicides of females and to measure trends in incidence over time. Electronic records of the King County Medical Examiner's Office in Seattle, Washington, were used to compile a data set of all homicides in King County from 1995 through 2022. A second data set of female homicides due to strangulation was constructed with additional records prior to 1995, supplemented with data abstracted from autopsy reports, and linked to the Washington Attorney General's Office Homicide Investigation Tracking System database. This comprehensive data set was used to analyze demographics, circumstances, motives, and injuries of female strangulation homicides from 1978 through 2016. The results found that, from 1995 through 2022, females accounted for 22.8% of 2394 homicides but 80.3% of strangulation homicides. The average annual rate of all strangulation homicides decreased until 2020. Mean ages of female decedents were 27.7 years in homicides associated with sexual assault, 36.8 years with domestic violence, and 63.9 years with robbery. Lethal assaults most often occurred in private homes, and perpetrators were usually well known to the victim. Injuries included petechiae in 83%; ligature marks in 20%; fingernail marks in 1.4%; hyoid fractures in 23%; and thyroid cartilage fractures in 31%. Fractures were more common in manual strangulation and in decedents of ages over 40 years.

Journal of Forensic Sciences. January 2024, 6pg

By Peter Leasure and Hunter M. Boehme

Efforts such as evidence-based policing and data-driven policing have argued for the use of research and data analysis in the decision-making process for law enforcement agencies. The current study sought to examine the importance of data collection and data analysis across Ohio law enforcement agencies and whether Ohio law enforcement agencies are interested in improving their data collection and data analysis procedures. The results showed that the majority of respondents strongly agreed or somewhat agreed that data collection and data analysis are key components of their decision-making process, and that their agency could benefit from improved data collection and data analysis procedures. However, a nontrivial number of respondents strongly disagreed or somewhat disagreed that data collection and data analysis are key components of their decision-making process, and that their agency could benefit from improved data collection and data analysis procedures. Recommendations informed by these results are discussed in detail.

Drug Enforcement and Policy Center. July 2023, 8pg

By U.S. Government Accountability Office

   The U.S. and its global partners are experiencing the effects of a massive cybercrime wave, which is growing in frequency and scale. In 2021, the Federal Bureau of Investigation received a record number of cybercrime complaints, over 840,000, with potential losses exceeding $6.9 billion. Further, in 2022, the intelligence community noted an increase in ransomware attacks by transnational criminals, which threaten to cause disruptions of critical services worldwide. GAO was asked to review federal efforts to build the capacity of allies and partner nations to combat cybercrime. This report’s specific objectives were to (1) describe challenges in building global capacity to combat cybercrime, and (2) determine actions selected federal agencies are taking to build foreign nations’ capacity to combat cybercrime and the extent to which they are evaluating the effectiveness of their efforts. GAO interviewed agency officials and convened a panel of experts representing entities focused on capacity building to combat global cybercrime. GAO also analyzed documentation from State, DOJ, and DHS, which provide the majority of U.S. capacity building assistance. What GAO Recommends GAO is making one recommendation to State to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of capacity building efforts to counter cybercrime. State concurred with the recommendation. 

 Washington, DC: GAO, 2023. 49p.

By Katherine Aguirre, Emile Badran and Robert Muggah

  Cities are where the future happens first. They are hubs of innovation, productivity and experimentation. But many cities also are sites of crime and violence. More than ever, municipal authorities, private firms and civic groups are experimenting with new ways to improve real and perceived safety in cities. In some cities, new technologies are improving the situational awareness of public authorities and citizens. In others, all encompassing surveillance and monitoring systems are challenging fundamental norms of privacy. In most developed cities, high-frequency time series information on insecurity is increasingly available. Literally thousands of gigabytes of raw data are available representing the dynamics and characteristics of crime. New high-power computer analysis is giving rise to a next generation of smart, agile and evidence-informed policing strategies. Predictive platforms in particular can enhance police operations, identifying priority targets for police intervention, and enabling more effective allocation of police resources.  

Brazil: Igarape Institute. 2019, 23pg

By James Austin, Todd Clear, and Richard Rosenfeld

Illinois is one of several states considering how to reduce its prison population amid the pandemic and calls for an end to mass incarceration. In recent years, the state has taken steps to reduce its prison population through judicial discretion, bail reform, and diversion programs. As Illinois’ prison population declines and policymakers, prosecutors, and courts consider alternatives to incarceration, what is the risk to public safety? Is crime likely to increase or decline in the state as those convicted of crimes are released or diverted to other programs? In this study, funded by The Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation, the authors conclude that Illinois crime rates, which have been on the decline since the 1990s, will continue to decline in a fluctuating pattern, with moderate year-to-year changes. This will be true even if Illinois reduces its prison population by an additional 25% over five years. The authors reached this conclusion by constructing a quantitative model that accounts for Illinois crime trends over nearly four decades and provides a basis for predicting crime rates in the near future. This study is a companion to the 2020 Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation report Explaining the Past and Projecting Future Crime Rates, which examined national crime trends and reached similar conclusions about crime rates in the near future.   

New York: Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation. 2020, 23pg