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Typologies of urban wildlife traffickers and sellers

By Meredith L. Gore , Robert Mwinyihali , Luc Mayet Gavinet Duclair, Makaya Baku-Bumb , etc.

Urban wildmeat consumption can contribute to significant declines in wildlife populations, ecosystem function, and food insecurity security. Describing types of individuals involved in illegal urban wildmeat trafficking can help distinguish ordinary citizens from members of criminal organizations and urban vs. rural dimensions of the activity. This research aimed to: (1) create and apply a typology for urban wildmeat traffickers and sellers; and (2) explore linkages between types of urban wildmeat traffickers and sellers. We used focus groups with experts in the Republic of the Congo, February 2019 (N = 2, n = 7–10) to achieve objectives and focused on pangolins, great apes, and dwarf crocodiles. Participants generated risk rankings for each species, typology and city; data was encoded and indexed. Results illustrate heterogeneity in actors involved in the illegal supply chain. Business sideliner and trading charity trafficker types were associated with the highest total risk to wildlife trafficking. A similar pattern of divergence was detected for seller typologies; hidden and casual sellers were associated with the greatest total risk in Pointe Noire and Brazzaville, respectively. Differentiating but not stove piping stakeholders involved in urban wildmeat trafficking will help clarify stages of illegal supply chains as well and promote thinking about new sectors to involve in interventions and solutions, particularly in urban ecosystems thought to be outside the scope to wildlife crime.

Global Ecology and Conservation. Volume 27, June 2021, e01557

Synthesizing knowledge on crime convergence and the illegal wildlife trade

By Michelle Anagnostou

The intensified illegal trade of wildlife has contributed to the unsustainable decline of wildlife populations, the destabilization of ecosystems, and threatens economic development and human security. Though often lacking empirical evidence, convergence theory has emerged recently as a topic of interest among researchers, practitioners, and the media to explain the growing overlap of criminal activities in an increasingly globalized world. In this paper, I explain the interdisciplinary theoretical foundations for the interconnectivity of criminal networks, including connections between illegal wildlife trade networks and non-state armed groups. I also outline and discuss various perspectives on the convergence of the illegal wildlife trade with other organized crime activities. I conclude by highlighting the urgent need for a better understanding of the role of the organized criminal groups involved in the illegal wildlife trade, and of how these groups converge with other types of criminal activities. The policy implications of filling in this knowledge gap are twofold: firstly, understanding how criminal networks converge can facilitate the implementation of more effective law enforcement and investigations that target high-profile offenders, as opposed to focusing on low-level poachers; and secondly, this understanding can foster more cooperation across agencies and jurisdictions to address multiple crime types and crime in convergence settings

Environmental Challenges. Volume 5, December 2021, 100222

Environmental Crime Convergence: Launching an Environmental Crime Convergence Paradigm Through Investigation of Transnational Organized Crime Operations

By Earth League International and John Jay College of Criminal Justice

Environmental crime convergence, the focal point of this report, poses an imminent threat to our planet’s delicate ecosystems. To address this urgent issue, ELI, and John Jay College present ELI’s revolutionary 4-Type Environmental Crime Convergence paradigm to comprehensively understand and combat the intricate web of transnational organized crime operations that perpetuate environmental degradation.

The foundation of this report is built upon the fieldwork and intelligence analysis of ELI’s investigators and crime analysts, who have gathered first-hand evidence of Environmental Crime Convergence directly from some of the world’s most notorious environmental criminals and their networks. Drawing on years of investigative fieldwork in the Americas, Europe, Africa, and Asia, over two dozen case studies have emerged from ELI’s work as primary sources of data.

This report highlights five (5) case studies of the transnational criminal networks in Latin America identified by ELI that illustrate the convergence of environmental and wildlife crime with other serious crimes and expose the severity of the issue at a global scale.

Los Angeles: Earth League International, 2023. 83p.

The Jungle Patrol: Fighting Illegal Loggers on the Guatemala-Mexico Border

By Alejandro Melgoza and Alex Papadovassilakis

We traveled over 300 kilometers through a trio of nature reserves to document how illegal loggers have ravaged some of the region’s most biodiverse forests and to chronicle the unlikely story of a small group of park rangers fighting back. This investigation, which used video and other multimedia elements to explain this complex criminal economy, is our most in-depth exploration of environmental crime yet..

Washington, DC: InSight Crime, 2022. 38p.

The Criminalization of Poverty in Tennessee

By Jack Norton, Stephen Jones, Bea Halbach-Singh, Jasmine Heiss

When people are arrested and charged for activities they are forced to engage in to survive—such as driving without a license or sleeping outside—poverty becomes criminalized. In these cases, being poor is essentially made illegal. In collaboration with Free Hearts—an organization led by formerly incarcerated women—Vera researchers explain how poverty has been criminalized across Tennessee and what this means for people who live in communities in the state. The effects of the criminalization of poverty are compounded through the collection of money bail; additional fines, fees, and costs; and barriers to housing, transportation, education, and employment. With deep dives into several counties across Tennessee, the report shows how incarceration and policing are related to other systems that both punish and exacerbate poverty in the state. The report outlines actionable steps that can be taken now to build toward a vision of safety that includes all Tennesseans.

New York: Vera Institute of Justice, 2022. 58p.

Hate in the Machine: Anti-Black and Anti-Muslim Social Media Posts as Predictors of Offline Racially and Religiously Aggravated Crime

By Matthew L Williams; Pete Burnap, Amir Javed, Han Liu, Sefa Ozalp

Hate crimes have risen up the hierarchy of individual and social harms, following the revelation of record high police figures and policy responses from national and devolved governments. The highest number of hate crimes in history was recorded by the police in England and Wales in 2017/18. The 94,098 hate offences represented a 17 per cent increase on the previous year and a 123 per cent increase on 2012/13. Although the Crime Survey for England and Wales has recorded a consistent decrease in total hate crime victimization (combining race, religion, sexual orientation, disability and transgender), estimations for race and religion-based hate crimes in isolation show an increase from a 112,000 annual average (April 13–March 15) to a 117,000 annual average (April 15–March 17) (ONS, 2017). This increase does not take into account the likely rise in hate victimization in the aftermath of the 2017 terror attacks in London and Manchester. Despite improvements in hate crime reporting and recording, the consensus is that a significant ‘dark figure’ remains. There continues a policy and practice needed to improve the intelligence about hate crimes, and in particular to better understand the role community tensions and events play in patterns of perpetration. The HMICFRS (2018) inspection on police responses to hate crimes evidence that forces remain largely ill-prepared to handle the dramatic increases in racially and religiously

The British Journal of Criminology, Volume 60, Issue 1, January 2020, Pages 93–117

Mapping crime – Hate crimes and hate groups in the USA: A spatial analysis with gridded data

By Michael Jendrykea, , Stephen C. McClure

From time to time the popular media draws attention to hate crimes and hate groups, evoking images of NaziGermany and the rise of fascism. The geographic association between hate groups and hate crimes is uncertain. In this research we ask whether hate crimes are co-located and correlated to the presence of hate groups to explore a potential association between these two phenomena. Publicly available point level data on hate crimes and hate groups collected by the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) were aggregated to unitary framework of hexagonal grid cells of a Discrete Global Grid System (DGGS) at multiple scales for consistent analysis. We explore the effects of proximity by interpreting a co-location map, deploying a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) for count data, and apply a Spatial Lag Model (SLM) at multiple scales, to ascertain the effects of the size of the aggregation units on the relationship between hate groups and hate crimes. Controlled or uncontrolled for spatial dependence, at all scales, the Spatial Lag Model (SLM) shows that an average of 39.5% of the hate crimes was correlated with hate groups. These results are consistent with the existing research but show that in most instances spatial dependence was present, regardless of the size of the aggregation unit or the distance to neighboring cells. Our future research will consider additional racial, economic and social variables using a DGGS.

Applied Geography. Volume 111, October 2019, 102072

U.S. Hate Crime Trends: What Disaggregation of Three Decades of Data Reveals About a Changing Threat and an Invisible Record

By Brian Levin, James Nolan, and Kiana Perst

When prejudice-related data are combined and analyzed over time, critical information is uncovered about overall trends, related intermittent spikes, and less common sharp inflectional shifts in aggression. These shifts impact social cohesion and grievously harm specific sub-groups when aggression escalates and is redirected or mainstreamed. These data, so critical to public policy formation, show that we are in such a historic inflection period now. Moreover, analysis of the latest, though partial Federal Bureau of Investigation hate crime data release, when overlaid with available data from excluded large jurisdictions, reveals hate crimes hit a record high in 2021 in the United States that previously went unreported. This Essay analyzes the most recent national data as well as various numerical and policy milestones that accompanied the historic, yet incomplete, implementation of hate crime data collection and related statutes over recent decades. This analysis of emerging trends in the United States is undertaken in the context of bigoted aggression broken down over time.

112 J. CRIM. L. & CRIMINOLOGY 749 (2023)

A Nationally Representative Examination of the Prevalence, Characteristics, and Consequences of Statutory Rape in the United States

By Gary Sweeten and Matthew Larson

This report describes a project that had the main goal of developing a broad, nationally representative understanding of how often statutory rape occurs in the U.S., who the victims and perpetrators are, how self-reported estimates compare to estimates from law enforcement data, and whether short- and/or long-term consequences exist and if they do, what the consequences might be. In order to accomplish that goal, the project had four specific objectives: to estimate nationally representative rates of statutory rape victimization and perpetration using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97); to assess situational differences between first sexual experiences that are statutory rape compared to those that are not; to estimate the likelihood of women’s statutory rape victimization being reported to police, using data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS); and to assess the short- and long-term consequences of statutory rape victimization, based on the nature and characteristics of relationships as well as on the age differences between victims and perpetrators. The authors provide a breakdown of their research design, methods, analytical and data analysis techniques, results and findings for the four objectives, research limitations, artifacts, datasets generated, and dissemination activities.

Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice Research and Evaluation on Violence Against Women, 2023. 57p.

Responding To Sexual Assault on Campus: A National Assessment and Systematic Classification of the Scope and Challenges for Investigation and Adjudication

By Linda M. Williams, April Pattavina, Alison C. Cares, and Nan D. Stein

Given the considerable changes in federal legislation and the pressing requirements that colleges and universities develop policies and practices that meet the needs of victims and of those accused of sexual assault, there is a critical need to document and understand how colleges are handling these demands and coordinating campus approaches to investigation and adjudication of sexual assaults. In 2015, the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) funded a project to commence January 2016, designed to examine the variations in policies and practices and understand more about challenges and emerging best practices. The research reported here was designed to identify the range and scope of policies and practices related to the investigation and adjudication of sexual assault on college campuses in the U.S. The Wellesley Centers for Women (WCW) with the assistance of an expert panel of advisory board members has documented and classified the current landscape (the breadth and differences) of campus approaches to investigations and adjudication of sexual assault. Our first step, informed by a victim-centered focus, was a web-based search of a randomly selected sample of four year colleges and universities (Institutions of Higher Education, IHEs) on policies and practices for investigation and adjudication of sexual assault reports. This web search was a systematic broadbased environmental scan designed to examine the policies and practices promulgated to the public and, most importantly, made available to students by IHEs. This environmental scan was followed by interviews with Title IX coordinators to develop a clearer understanding of the challenges and successes of these policies.

Washington, DC: U.S. National Institute of Justice, 2020. 91p.

Stalking: Final Report

By The Victorian Law Reform Commission

This report contains 45 recommendations for stalking law reform. They aim to improve the ways that the justice system treats people who have experienced stalking in a non-family violence context.

The report recommends that victims should have easier access to financial and practical support, such as technology to prevent cyberstalking. Victims should be supported by independent advocates to guide them through every stage, from reporting the stalking activity to accessing support services and any court actions.

The report also recommends improvements to the personal safety intervention order (PSIO) system. The system is currently swamped, so non-family violence stalking matters do not receive the attention they need. The VLRC recommends developing guidance on how to identify and prioritise stalking cases.

Another recommendation calls for the Crimes Act to be amended to make the stalking offence clearer and easier to apply.

Melbourne: The Commission, 2022. 238p.

National Evaluation of the Male Offender Personality Disorder Pathway Programme

By Paul Moran, Manuela Jarrett, George Vamvakas, Sarah Roberts, Barbara Barrett, Colin Campbell, Mizan Khondoker, Julie Trebilcock, Tim Weaver, Julian Walker, Mike Crawford & Andrew Forrester

The Offender Personality Disorder (OPD) Pathway programme is a jointly commissioned initiative between NHS England and Improvement and HM Prison & Probation Service aimed at supporting and managing offenders with complex mental health needs. The aim is to provide a network of psychologically informed services for high-risk high-harm offenders guided by detailed case formulation. The aim of this evaluation was to identify how the Pathway was being experienced by offenders within Pathway services and the staff involved in managing them since its implementation, to statistically compare outcomes between individuals referred to OPD services and those not referred, and to identify whether there was evidence of cost-effectiveness of the Pathway and how different elements of the Pathway contribute to cost-effectiveness. It should be noted that the aim of this evaluation was to look at the OPD Pathway as a whole, and was not to identify the contribution of the various OPD Pathway interventions.

Ministry of Justice Analytical Series 2022 . London: Ministry of Justice, 2022. 39p.

“They say it’s fentanyl, but they honestly look like Perc 30s”: Initiation and use of counterfeit fentanyl pills .

By Raminta Daniulaityte, Kaylin Sweeney , Seol Ki, Bradley N. Doebbeling and Natasha Mendoza

Background: Worsening of the overdose crisis in the USA has been linked to the continuing proliferation of non-pharmaceutical fentanyl (NPF). The recent wave of NPF spread in the USA has been fueled by an increased presence of counterfeit pills that contain NPF. This qualitative study aims to characterize the motivation and practices of counterfeit NPF pill initiation and use among individuals using illicit opioids in Arizona. Methods: Between October 2020 and May 2021, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 22 individuals meeting the following eligibility criteria: (1) 18 years or older; (2) residence in Arizona; and (3) use of illicit opioids in the past 30 days and/or opioid use disorder treatment in the past 12 months. Participants were recruited through referrals by a harm reduction organization, craigslist ads, and referrals by other participants. Interviews were conducted virtually via Zoom. Qualitative interviews were transcribed and analyzed thematically using NVivo. Results: Out of 22 participants, 64% were male, and 45% were ethnic minorities. Age ranged between 25 and 51 years old. Participants noted significant recent increases in the availability of counterfeit NPF pills (“blues,” “dirty oxys”) that were most commonly used by smoking. The majority indicated frst trying NPF pills in the past year, and the frst use often occurred in situations of reduced access to heroin or pharmaceutical opioids. Participant decisions to switch over to more frequent NPF pill use or to maintain some levels of heroin use were shaped by local drug availability trends and personal experiences with NPF efects. They were also infuenced by conficting views of social acceptability of pharmaceutical-like drugs, perceived harms of NPF in terms of overdose risks and increased difculty of quitting, and perceived benefts of switching to the non-injection route of opioid administration (e.g., from injecting heroin to smoking NPF pills). Conclusion: Our fndings highlight the need for the implementation of novel policy, treatment, and harm reduction approaches to address the growing unpredictability of drug supply and NPF pill-specifc risks, attitudes, and behaviors.

Harm Reduction Journal (2022) 19:52

'High rollers': A study of criminal profits along Australia’s heroin and methamphetamine supply chains

By John Coyne and Teagan Westendorf

THis report helps develop an understanding of the quantum of profits being made and where in the value chain they occur. Australians spent approximately A$5.8 billion on methamphetamine and A$470 million on heroin in FY 2019.

Approximately A$1,216,806,017 was paid to international wholesalers overseas for the amphetamine and heroin that was smuggled into Australia in that year. The profit that remained in Australia’s economy was about A$5,012,150,000. Those funds are undermining Australia’s public health and distorting our economy daily, and ultimately funding drug cartels and traffickers in Southeast Asia.

One key takeaway from the figures presented in this report is that the Australian drug trade is large and growing. Despite the best efforts of law enforcement agencies, methamphetamine and heroin use has been increasing by up to 17% year on year. Falling prices in Southeast Asia are likely to keep pushing that number up, while drug prices and purity in Australia remain relatively stable.

Canberra: Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2021. 40p.

Prior contact with the criminal justice system among people who fatally overdosed on illicit drugs in Surrey and in British Columbia, 2011 to 2016

By Shannon Brennan and Benjamin Mazowita

 Between 2011 and 2016, 2,362 people in British Columbia had a fatal overdose from illicit drugs, with 332 occurring in Surrey specifically. The majority of individuals who died of an illicit drug overdose in British Columbia (66%) and specifically in the City of Surrey (64%) had no contact with police in the 24 months preceding their overdose death. For the purposes of this study, a contact with the police is defined as an official intervention, where the individual was identified by police as a person accused of a criminal incident.  Overall, most of the decedents (66%) held some form of employment in at least one of the five years preceding their overdose death, regardless of any contact with police. That said, decedents who had a formal contact with the police were less likely to have experienced consistent employment over the 5 years. One in five (20%) decedents who had contact with police were employed in each of the 5 years prior to their fatal overdose, compared to 29% of decedents who did not have contact.  More than two-thirds (68%) of decedents who had contact with police had also received social assistance benefits in the 5 years prior to their death, a proportion that was significantly higher than their counterparts who had no contact with police (55%).  In general, most decedents were not hospitalized in the year before their death. This held true for both those who had contact with police (72%) and those who did not (75%). The remaining one in four decedents were hospitalized at least once in the year preceding their death. The most common reasons for hospitalization among decedents in the year before their death besides opioid poisonings were in connection to substance use related disorders and mental health conditions.  While the majority of decedents never came into contact with police, among those who did (34%), many did so multiple times. Overall, 15% of decedents in British Columbia and 16% of decedents in the City of Surrey had three or more formal contacts with police in the 24 months preceding their overdose death.  Overall, among decedents who had a contact with police, 33% in British Columbia (and 24% in the City of Surrey) had a fatal overdose in the 90 days following their last contact with police. These findings indicate the need for timely interventions.  The majority of decedents who came into contact with police prior to their fatal overdose did so for a non-violent crime: 83% of police contacts were for non-violent offences whereas the remaining 17% involved violent offences. Shoplifting of items valued at $5,000 or under was the most common reason decedents came into contact with police in the 24 months prior to their death. Aside from property offences and, more specifically, shoplifting, offences against the administration of justice were also among the most common reasons decedents came into contact with police. These offences were also highly represented among the decedent cohort, relative to the province as a whole.  In line with their police interactions, most of the decedents who appeared in a criminal court within the 2 years preceding their overdose death did so in relation to property offences and offences against the administration of justice. Specifically, cases involving theft, breach of probation and failure to comply with an order were among the most prevalent

Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 2019. 18p.

Economic Causes Of Theft In 25 OECD Countries: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

By Özlem Dündar

There are many reasons for crime, including biological, psychological, economic, and social. The reasons for the crime may vary by the types of crime. While some types of crimes are mostly committed for economic reasons, many factors other than economic factors can be predominantly influential in committing some types of crimes. It is essential to investigate the economic causes of crime types. Because, there may be economic reasons on the basis of crimes stemming from psychological and sociological reasons. In this study context, the economic reasons for theft crime which is mostly committed for economic reasons, were investigated by the System Generalized Moments Method (GMM) for selected countries (25 OECD countries) that are members of the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation. While determining the OECD member countries, the data set of all the variables (unemployment, Gini coefficient as an indicator of income inequality, consumer price index as an indicator of inflation, social expenditures, and population) included in the analysis was examined, and a standard analysis period (2013-2018) was determined according to these data. Thus, the effect of these variables on theft crime was investigated for the period 2013-2018. In the literature, economic variables were mostly used in the studies on the subject, but there were not many studies investigating the effect of the social expenditure variable on theft crime. For this reason, it is considered that the study will contribute to the literature. According to the system GMM analysis results, while unemployment, inflation rate (consumer price index), and the Gini coefficient positively affect theft crime, social expenditures and population variables show no effect.

Unpublished paper, 2022. 23p.

Economic Outcomes of Canadian Federal Offenders

By Kelly M. Babchishin, Leslie-Anne Keown, and Kimberly P. Mularczyk

Employment is a key factor that helps reduce reoffending rates among individuals with criminal records. The current study examined the economic outcomes of 11,158 federal offenders (Mage in 2014 = 47 years) admitted to Correctional Service of Canada institutions between January 4th, 1999 and December 31st 2001 (medianadmission year = 2000) who were released in the community for an average of 14 years. The purpose of the current study was to better understand the economic outcomes of Canadian federal offenders. More than half of the cohort of released offenders filed their taxes (5,835 of 11,158). The current study suggests that individuals with criminal records face considerable barriers when seeking employment in Canada, with only half of the individuals released from federal institutions finding employment after an average of 14 years. Individuals released from federal correctional institutions participated in the labour market less, made substantially less employment income, received more social assistance payments, and filed taxes less than the general Canadian population. After an average of 14 years post release, most individuals were underemployed with a median income of $0. Of those who reported employment, the average reported income was $14,000. This is less than half of what Canadians in the general population earn through employment. We also found that barriers to finding gainful employment following incarceration disproportionately impacted women, Indigenous, and older individuals, with these groups fairing even poorer than men, non-Indigenous, and younger individuals with criminal records. The current study suggests that more should be done to assist individuals with a criminal record secure gainful employment.

RESEARCH REPORT: 2021-R002 . Ottawa:; Public Safety Canada, 2021. 37p.

Poverty and Access to Justice: Review of the Literature

By Ireland Bellsmith, Olivia Goertzen, Kia Neilsen and Olivia Stinson

Poverty is both a source and a consequence of injustice. The following is a brief review of some of the many issues at the intersection between poverty and the justice system, and more generally, poverty and access to justice. It is based on a review of the literature as well as some of the prior work by the International Centre for Criminal Law Reform and Criminal Justice Policy, an institute of the UN Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice Programme Network based in Vancouver, BC. In their first report, the National Advisory Council on Poverty (NACP) defined poverty as the deprivation of resources and the lack of power required to attain basic living standards and to facilitate social integration and inclusion, thus clearly linking poverty to social exclusion or marginalization. Although the Council agreed with that broad definition of poverty, initially used in Opportunity for All – Canada’s First Poverty Reduction Strategy, it also acknowledged that a more comprehensive definition would further emphasize the feelings of social disconnect and disempowerment that commonly characterize poverty. Poverty limits people’s access to justice and their ability to resolve conflicts and deal with everyday legal problems. It is a very disempowering and alienating experience. The resulting inability to successfully resolve legal problems is itself contributing to people’s inability to attain or maintain basic living standards. The justice system instead of empowering poor people and allowing them to fight for their rights is too often a source for them of frustration, disillusionment, and disempowerment, as well as a direct reflection of prevailing social inequality and exclusion. The experience of the justice system for marginalized victims of crime and individuals struggling with poverty is also problematic and is also contributing to and dictated by poverty. Yet, poverty is linked to higher rates of victimization and the consequences of victimization are often direr for people experiencing poverty and marginalization. Finally, the experience of people facing criminal charges or being convicted of a crime is also affected by their social and economic status. The likelihood of a criminal conviction and the consequences of a criminal conviction are directly influenced by the means of the defendants and the means and social capital of those who are convicted. The lack of support for convicted offenders, compounding their ostracization, is a further source of inequality and contributes to further entrenching them and their family in poverty and exclusion. This report presents an overview of recent research and general information gathered from persuasive articles, publications, and research studies on the topic of poverty in Canada and its implications and influence on access to justice. By evaluating different areas of justice and legal proceedings, we seek to identify emerging themes in research and analyze effective practices and those that appear to fall short. Thus far, evident themes between poverty and access to justice include unsatisfactory victim experience, conditions leading to incarceration despite the availability of alternatives, lack of legal awareness within communities, and problematic disempowerment. While current practices and legislation have sought to address these obstacles inherent to the Canadian justice system, we suggest that the circumstances of poverty continue to impede equal access to justice in a number of ways and recommend that further research be conducted to evaluate best practices.

Vancouver, BC: International Centre for Criminal Law Reform , 2022. 38p

Racial Inequality in the Prevalence, Degree, Extension, and Permeation of Incarceration in Family Life

By Youngmin Yi

The prevalence, consequences, and unequal distribution of parental and own incarceration in the United States are well documented. However, much of our knowledge of the reach of the carceral state into family life is focused on incarceration of a parent, romantic partner, or child, to the exclusion of other important relationships. Using data from the Family History of Incarceration Study, a nationally representative survey of U.S. adults (N=2,029), this study introduces novel descriptive measures that provide a more comprehensive picture of the demography and racially unequal distribution of family incarceration: degree, generational extension, and permeation. This analysis shows that Black adults in the United States are not only more likely to have experienced family incarceration but are also more likely to have had more family members incarcerated (5.3 members vs. ≤2.8 members for adults of other racial/ethnic groups) and to have had family members from more generations ever incarcerated (1.7 generations vs. ≤1.1 generations for those of other groups). Further, the stability of these estimates across model specifications underscores the importance of interrogating long-standing approaches to the analysis of linkages between race, the criminal legal system, and family life and the investigation of racialized systems and social inequality more broadly

Demography (2023) 60(1):15–40

The Distinct Roles of Poverty and Higher Earnings in Motivating Crime

By Benjamin Ferri and Lia Yin

Does inequality lead to more crime? We develop a new model that articulates how Poverty (the lower tail of the earnings distribution) and Earnings (the upper tail) enter into equilibrium crime rates. In our model, individuals in Poverty have less to lose in the context of criminal punishment, so are less averse to committing crimes in general. The presence of high Earnings (therefore things worth stealing) heightens the expected gain to offenders per crime - but specifically in terms of financial gain, not emotional gain. We estimate our model on a comprehensive panel of U.S. Commuting Zones (1980-2016), deploying novel Shift-Share instruments to correct for reverse causality (of crime on the earnings distribution). Corroborating our hypothesis, we find that high Earnings plays a much larger role in driving crimes that yield financial gain to the offender (various forms of theft) than it does for crimes of emotional gain; while Poverty is a driving force equally across both types of crime. In each case, not accounting for reverse causality would underestimate both effects, often by more than double.

Unpublished paper, 2022. 50p.