By Nicole M. Smith, Kady Seguin, U. Mete Saka, Sebnem Duzgun, Ashley Smith-Roberts, David Soud, Jenna White

Illicit gold flows constitute a major development challenge for governments and a social responsibility challenge for many industries along gold supply chains, including gold refiners and jewelry retailers. This paper highlights aspects of gold supply chains that lack transparency and may indicate junctures where illicit activities are taking place, resulting in a loss of tax and customs revenues. Using Peru and Kenya as case study countries, we draw from United Nations Comtrade data and qualitative data from field research to examine the magnitude of the gold trade, the forms in which gold is traded, discrepancies in reported trade data, and key trade partners for each country. We suggest that certain portions of gold supply chains should be given more attention, some types of gold exports and imports present greater traceability challenges than others, and some countries play a much more significant role in the global gold trade. We propose areas where further investigations may be warranted to ensure more transparent and responsible gold supply chains.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 42–59. 2024

By Roberto Uchôa de Oliveira Santos

In recent decades, the global debate on gun control has been prominent, with many countries adopting more restrictive policies. Brazil followed this trend by implementing stringent measures in 2003; however, the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro in 2019 introduced normative changes aimed at facilitating public access to firearms and ammunition. Throughout his term, the legal firearms market doubled, allowing access to weaponry previously restricted to the general public. The analyzed hypothesis suggests that these normative changes, especially those related to the quantity and authorization of acquisition of previously restricted firearms, altered the types of firearms in circulation, strengthening the interaction between legal and illegal markets. Using data from the mandatory firearms re-registration, a total of 962,782 firearms were analyzed. The assessment of the increase in circulation of these firearms in the illegal market was conducted through the analysis of seizures in the states of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, revealing a significant growth in seizures of these types of firearms, possibly correlated with the increase in their circulation. Three police investigations were selected to exemplify how the connection between markets intensified, allowing criminals to obtain firearms in the legal market that were previously only accessible through international trafficking or diversion from state agencies.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 16–29. 2024

By Eva Veldhuizen Ochodničanová, Alicia Heys

Despite the link between conflict and human trafficking having been globally recognized, academic inquiry investigating how the two interact continues to be limited. Given the recency of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation in February 2022, this lack of literature is even more pronounced in understanding how the risks of trafficking are developing in the current context. This paper examines extant academic literature to explore what is already known about the relationship between conflict and human trafficking, situating this within the theoretical framework of routine activity theory (RAT). It analyses governmental and non-governmental organization reports emerging from Ukraine to contextualize the risk that is specific to those affected by the war. The paper identifies four key drivers of risk facing those in, or fleeing, Ukraine, which can heighten their vulnerability to human trafficking, before offering a novel and innovative typology of the ways that human trafficking can manifest as a result of conflict. The typology gives consideration to the direct and indirect links between conflict and trafficking, the geographical spaces in which trafficking can occur, and the specific forms that exploitation can take. By situating the paper within RAT and contextualizing it with evidence from the war in Ukraine, the findings of this paper provide both theoretical and empirical insights that help to expand existing knowledge on how conflict situations can increase the risk of THB.

  Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(2): pp. 26–41.2024   

By Jessica H. Beard, Jennifer Midberry, Iman N. Afifa, Elizabeth Dauera, Jim MacMillanc, Sara F. Jacoby 

Media reports on interpersonal firearm violence largely present it as a crime issue focused on individual shooting events. This episodic framing can undermine support for public health solutions to firearm violence. The potential harms of this narrative on firearm-injured people are unknown. We aimed to understand how recently firearm-injured people perceive the meaning and impact of news media reporting on their own injuries and firearm violence in their communities. This study was conducted in the trauma clinic of the busiest trauma center for firearm injuries in Philadelphia, PA, USA. We consecutively recruited adult firearm-injured patients for semi-structured qualitative interviews within two months of their injury. Interview content was thematically analyzed. Twenty-six patients consented and participated. Results indicate that participants largely felt negative or conflicted about “making the news” and perceived several harms associated with media reports on their injuries, including dehumanization they connected with episodic-style reports, reliving trauma when viewing news, distress related to inaccuracies, threats to personal safety when specific details were included harm to reputation, and negative impacts on public perceptions of safety and community. Participants who did not make the news often reported relief and generally did not expect their stories to be reported. These findings suggest that firearm-injured people perceive multiple harms associated with episodic narratives that neglect their viewpoints. Journalists and public health practitioners should work together with communities to identify strategies to reframe firearm violence as a public health problem through reporting that is trauma-informed and incorporates the perspectives of firearm-injured people.

SSM - Qualitative Research in HealthVolume 3, June 2023, 

By The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)

Countries across the Near and Middle East have registered an escalation in both the scale and sophistication of drug trafficking operations over the past decade. The destabilizing risks posed by illicit drugs have become increasingly prominent on the regional agenda. Of particular concern for governments and societies across the region is the rising production, trafficking and consumption of amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS), in particular, tablets containing amphetamine sold under the name “captagon”, and methamphetamine. Iraq and neighbouring countries have documented a sharp increase in the trafficking and use of “captagon” over the past five years. “Captagon” seizures in Iraq increased by almost 3,380 per cent in Iraq from 2019 to 2023. Iraq reported the seizure of over 4.1 tons of “captagon” tablets between January and December 2023 alone. Seizures of amphetamine (mainly in the form of “cap tagon”) in the Near and Middle East doubled from 2020, reaching a record high of 86 tons in 2021. In parallel to “captagon” trafficking, a methamphetamine market is quickly developing in the Near and Middle East, as shown by a rise in seizures.3 UNODC research has found that Iraq is at risk of becoming an increasingly important node in the drug trafficking ecosystem spanning the Near and Middle East. Iraq lies near the intersection of a complex global drug trafficking ecosystem spanning Southwest Asia, Africa, and Europe, notably the Balkan and Southern routes associated with opiate smuggling from Afghanistan to Europe, through Southeastern Europe, and towards the Indian Ocean and Eastern Africa, including through the Arabian Peninsula. Within Iraq, drugs are trafficked along three key internal corridors, in the north, central and southern regions of the country. There are distinct territorial, ethnic, economic, and political factors and differentiated drug market dynamics connected to each route. The main categories of drugs traf f icked through Iraq include opium, heroin, hashish and especially, methamphetamine and “captagon”. While Iraq is not necessarily the most affected country in the region in terms of volumes of drugs seized, there are risks that the situation could deteriorate if drug trafficking, in particular of methamphetamine and “captagon”, keeps intensifying. A particular challenge facing countries across the Near and Middle East are armed groups with cross-border affiliations and transborder economic interests. Alongside a recent history marked by armed conflict and corruption, this situation has contributed to cross-border trafficking. The Government of Iraq and its partners have stressed the need for collective responses to tackle the security, social and economic ramifications of drug trafficking across the Near and Middle East. As seen in different regional contexts, the persistence – and potential reactivation – of armed groups poses a significant threat, not least given their potential involvement in illicit drug production and trafficking. There is growing awareness among governments of how drug trafficking intensifies corruption, undermines governance and legitimate business, degrades services and contributes to violent competition between armed groups. There is also growing concern over evidence of increasing drug use and related social harms, requiring sustained treatment and rehabilitation efforts.6 Practical responses are being implemented but are still at an early stage. Iraq established its first drug law and commission in 2017 and in 2023 launched a National Strategy on Narcotics and Psychotropic Substances (2023–2025) in 2023. Moreover, Iraq organized the first regional event on the issue in 2023 to accelerate collaboration and coordinate efforts in drug detection and disruption..

Vienna: UNODC, 2024. 46p.

Liana W. Rosen

Sanctions play a role in U.S. national drug control strategies to disrupt and deter the illicit production and trafficking of foreign-produced drugs. The 118th Congress has focused on the role of sanctions in combating synthetic opioid production and trafficking (including fentanyl). Opioids are a leading contributor to U.S. drug overdose deaths.

Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service; 2024

By Jeffrey W. Swanson, April M. Zeoli, Shannon Frattaroli, Marian Betz, Michele Easter, Reena Kapoor, Christopher Knoepke, Michael Norko, Veronica A. Pear, et al..

More than half of suicide deaths in the United States result from self-inflicted firearm injuries. Extreme risk protection order (ERPO) laws in 21 states and the District of Columbia temporarily limit access to firearms for individuals found in a civil court process to pose an imminent risk of harm to themselves or others. Research with large multistate study populations has been lacking to determine effectiveness of these laws. This study assembled records pertaining to 4,583 ERPO respondents in California, Connecticut, Maryland, and Washington. Matched records identified suicide decedents and self-injury method. Researchers applied case fatality rates for each suicide method to estimate nonfatal suicide attempts corresponding to observed deaths. Comparison of counterfactual to observed data patterns yielded estimates of the number of lives saved and number of ERPOs needed to avert one suicide. Estimates varied depending on the assumed probability that a gun owner who attempts suicide will use a gun. Two evidence-based approaches yielded estimates of 17 and 23 ERPOs needed to prevent one suicide. For the subset of 2,850 ERPO respond ents with documented suicide concern, comparable estimates were 13 and 18, respectively. This study’s findings add to growing evidence that ERPOs can be an effective and important suicide prevention tool.

J Am Acad Psychiatry Law 52(3) online, 2024. DOI:10.29158/JAAPL.240056-24

By Jessica H. Beard , Shannon Trombley, Tia Walker, Leah Roberts3, Laura Partain4, Jim MacMillan5 and Jennifer Midberry

Background: Firearm violence is an intensifying public health problem in the United States. News reports shape the way the public and policymakers understand and respond to health threats, including firearm violence. To better understand how firearm violence is communicated to the public, we aimed to determine the extent to which firearm violence is framed as a public health problem on television news and to measure harmful news content as identified by firearm-injured people.

Methods: This is a quantitative content analysis of Philadelphia local television news stories about firearm violence using a database of 7,497 clips. We compiled a stratified sample of clips aired on two randomly selected days/months from January to June 2021 from the database (n = 192 clips). We created a codebook to measure public health frame elements and to assign a harmful content score for each story and then coded the clips. Characteristics of stories containing episodic frames that focus on single shooting events were compared to clips with thematic frames that include a broader social context for violence.

Results: Most clips employed episodic frames (79.2%), presented law enforcement officials as primary narrators (50.5%), and included police imagery (79.2%). A total of 433 firearm-injured people were mentioned, with a mean of 2.8 individuals shot included in each story. Most of the firearm-injured people featured in the clips (67.4%) had no personal information presented apart from age and/or gender. The majority of clips (84.4%) contained at least one harmful content element. The mean harmful content score/clip was 2.6. Public health frame elements, including epidemiologic context, root causes, public health narrators and visuals, and solutions were missing from most clips. Thematic stories contained significantly more public health frame elements and less harmful content compared to episodic stories.

Conclusions: Local television news produces limited public health coverage of firearm violence, and harmful content is common. This reporting likely compounds trauma experienced by firearm-injured people and could impede support for effective public health responses to firearm violence. Journalists should work to minimize harmful news content and adopt a public health approach to reporting on firearm violence.

Beard et al. BMC Public Health, 2024.     

By: Azrael, Deborah and Blocher, Joseph and Cook, Philip J. and Hemenway, David and Miller, Matthew,

For a paper that has not yet been through peer review or even been formally published, William English’s "2021 National Firearms Survey" has been remarkably prominent in gun rights advocacy and scholarship. As of June 2024, it has been cited in roughly 50 briefs, invoked at oral argument in the Supreme Court and multiple courts of appeals, and regularly cited in public writings and published academic work.

This response is offered in the spirit of a peer review. Our focus is on methodological issues, questionable statistical results, and problematic conclusions. Because of serious methodological issues, the draft fails to provide a reliable estimate of the number of defensive gun uses, the stock of AR-15s, or the actual protective value of or frequency with which AR-15 type firearms have been used. The paper should not be used as an authoritative source.

Duke Law School Public Law & Legal Theory Series No. 2024-50

By Antonio Fuentes Díaz

The article compares two important experiences of the emergence and consolidation of armed non-state actors in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and Michoacán, Mexico, noting the rise of the groups, their functioning, relationship with the state and involvement in new forms of governance in territorial control, population regulation and profit-making. These phenomena are part of a broader transformation related to political mutations that decentralize the state and generate specific subjective forms that modify the relationships between the individual, the social, the state, and the market

2022, Dilemas, Revista de Estudos de Conflito Controle Social, June 2022, Dilemas 1(4):179-204

By Jorge Mantilla

In this working paper, Jorge Mantilla explores state-criminal cooperation in roadblock politics. His study discusses the way in which, between 2015 and 2023, the bilateral tensions and border closure between Colombia and Venezuela created a political economy of smuggling in which state officials delegated basic state functions to organized crime groups to contain foes, domesticate illegal economies, and maintain social control. Mantilla shows that the fundamentals of this political economy are negotiated mobility instances taking place at checkpoints deployed in the multiple informal trails along the borderland where smugglers, organized crime groups, and state officials interact.

 Copenhagen: DIIS · Danish Institute for International Studies 2024. 31p.

By The Independent Commission to Investigate the Facts of the Tragedy in Lewiston

At 6:54 p.m. on October 25, 2023, 40-year-old Army Reservist Robert Card II (Card) entered the Just-In-Time Recreation Facility in Lewiston, Maine, armed with a .308 Ruger SFAR4 rifle with a scope and laser. Over 60 patrons and employees, including 20 children, were present. In 45 seconds, Card fired 18 rounds, killing eight people and wounding three others. Additional people suffered injuries while trying to hide or escape. Card then drove about four miles to Schemengees Bar and Grille. He left his car running outside the main entrance and entered the building at 7:07 p.m. In 78 seconds, he fired 36 rounds, killing ten more people and wounding ten others. Additional individuals suffered other injuries during the chaos. In total, Card killed 18 people and wounded 13 in less than two minutes inside those businesses. Card is solely responsible for his conduct. He caused the deaths and injuries inflicted that night. Although he might still have committed a mass shooting even if someone had managed to remove Card’s firearms before October 25, 2023, there were several opportunities that, if taken, might have changed the course of events. The Commission affirms its earlier unanimous finding that in September 2023, the Sagadahoc County Sheriff’s Office (SCSO) had sufficient probable cause to take Card into protective custody under Maine’s yellow flag law5 and to initiate a petition to confiscate any firearms he possessed or over which he had control. Several law enforcement officials testified that the yellow flag law is cumbersome, inefficient, and unduly restrictive regarding who can initiate a proceeding to limit a person’s access to firearms. Further, the SCSO is justified in pointing out that the Army Reserve (AR) did not share all the relevant information it had about Card’s behavior. Nevertheless, under the circumstances existing and known to the SCSO in September of 2023, the yellow flag law authorized the SCSO to start the process of obtaining a court order to remove Card’s firearms. The Commission further finds that the leaders of Card’s (AR) Unit failed to undertake necessary steps to reduce the threat he posed to the public. His commanding officers were well aware of his auditory hallucinations, increasingly aggressive behavior, collection of guns, and ominous comments about his intentions. Despite their knowledge, they ignored the strong recommendations of Card’s Army mental health providers to stay engaged with his care and "make [e] sure that steps are taken to remove weapons” from his home. They neglected to share with the SCSO all the information relating to Card’s threatening behavior and actually discounted some of the evidence about the threat posed by Card. Had they presented a full and complete accounting of the facts, the SCSO might have acted more assertively in September. While the AR leaders correctly point out that their authority over a reservist like Card is not as broad as the authority the military has over their active-duty service members, they failed to take advantage of the available opportunities to exercise their authority over him. Finally, we find that the challenges faced by law enforcement in responding to the shootings were unprecedented in Maine: two active shooting sites with dozens killed and injured, multiple reports of other active shooting sites, gathering and preserving evidence for possible criminal prosecution, and a simultaneous state-wide manhunt. Many law enforcement officers demonstrated bravery and professionalism in the face of danger. While the first hours were, at times, “utter chaos” as hundreds of law enforcement officers poured into Lewiston and were dispatched or self-dispatched to numerous scenes, the actions of law enforcement ultimately resulted in the discovery of Card’s body within 49 hours without further loss of life. While the Commission makes some findings about the actions of law enforcement following the shooting, we anticipate that the Maine State Police (MSP) will conduct a full after-action review with an independent evaluation by an entity with policing expertise. The MSP has already completed a "Manhunt Operations After Action Review" focused on tactical operations with an independent evaluation by the Pennsylvania State Police. Not only would a full after-action review allow for professional recommendations about policy, protocol, and other policing improvements, it would likely confirm what this Commission recognizes as positive and successful examples of the law enforcement response.    

Lewiston, ME: The Commission, 2024. 215p.

By Marina Foltia

This book assesses the consequences of Brexit for the control of illicit trade in tobacco products in the UK and EU. Based on the currently applicable legal framework, it examines the significance of a possible non-application of the acquis communautaire in the UK in matters relating to anti-illicit trade in tobacco legislation. It also analyses the modes of future cooperation between the UK and the EU in this area, as well as possible regulatory scenarios and their consequences. The book comprises six main sections. After the introduction (Section 1), Section 2 discusses the state of play of Brexit and the possible outcomes of Article 50 of the Treaty of European Union procedure. Section 3 illustrates the data and trends of illicit tobacco trade in the UK. Section 4 describes the relevant legal (e.g. trade and fiscal measures) and enforcement frameworks in the UK and suggests possible post-Brexit scenarios in control of tobacco illicit trade. Section 5 focuses on the relevance of arrangements between governments and the tobacco industry in the control of illicit trade. Section 6 then analyses the relevance of key EU and global anti-illicit trade initiatives. Lastly, Section 7 of the book offers some recommendations and conclusions on how the UK could control illicit trade in tobacco after Brexit.

Cham: Springer Nature, 2020. 81p.

Rebecca L. Brown, Lee Epstein, Mitu Gulati 

This Essay reports data on the impact of Bruen and its predecessor, Heller, on gun rights cases. Put mildly, the impact was substantial, not only in terms of the number of cases in the courts but also the partisanship displayed in the application of Bruen. And that partisanship increase was particularly large on the part of Trump-appointed judges. The Supreme Court has now decided Rahimi, its first opportunity to apply Bruen. While the Court's new decision blunted some of the sharpest concerns raised by Bruen, it did not eliminate the key concern, recommitting itself to a test that places considerable unguided discretion in judges, inviting partisan bias. The revolution that the Court wrought through Bruen and Heller may have only just begun.

Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 2024-51

SHAH, MARIAM

The following excerpt from the document contains multiple links embedded in the original text: "Islamic State (IS) recently released a powerful recruitment message for 'distracted Muslim youth' to travel and join IS territories across the world. It highlights a disturbing trend in how terrorist organisations are using technology to recruit and mobilise members through a single message. It also shows that contemporary terror groups and extremist organisations are adapting fast to emerging technologies. This Insight aims to highlight an alarming reality: the exploitation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology by terrorist and violent extremist groups to strengthen recruitment efforts. These groups proficiently manipulate online platforms, leveraging sophisticated AI tools to disseminate tailored propaganda content to exploit psychological vulnerabilities and amplify divisive narratives, thereby fostering radicalisation and recruitment. From using encrypted messaging apps like Telegram and WhatsApp to seeking refuge in the anonymity of the Dark Web, these groups employ various tactics to evade AI detection and exploit vulnerabilities. By leveraging AI tools, these groups engage in personalised messaging, rapid distribution, and exploitation of social media algorithms to amplify their reach and influence susceptible individuals."

GLOBAL NETWORK ON EXTREMISM AND TECHNOLOGY (GNET). 4 JUL, 2024. 8p.

UNITED STATES. PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE. OFFICE OF THE SURGEON GENERAL

From the document: "A recent nationally representative survey (n=1,271) found that the majority of U.S. adults or their family members (54%) have experienced a firearm-related incident. Among all respondents, 21% have personally been threatened with a firearm, 19% have a family member who was killed by a firearm (including by suicide), 17% have witnessed someone being shot, 4% have shot a firearm in self-defense, and 4% have been injured by a firearm (Figure 2). 'Nearly 6 in 10 U.S. adults say that they worry 'sometimes,' 'almost every day,' or 'every day,' about a loved one being a victim of firearm violence.' Such high levels of exposure to firearm violence for both children and adults give rise to a cycle of trauma and fear within our communities, contributing to the nation's mental health crisis. This Advisory describes the public health crisis of firearm violence in America and describes strategies for firearm injury and violence prevention, with a focus on the health and well-being of children, families, and communities."

United States. Public Health Service. Office of the Surgeon Genera. . 2024. 49p.

By National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

For nearly eight decades, the world has been navigating the dangers of the nuclear age. Despite Cold War tensions and the rise of global terrorism, nuclear weapons have not been used in conflict since Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Efforts such as strategic deterrence, arms control and non-proliferation agreements, and the U.S.-led global counterterrorism have helped to keep nuclear incidents at bay. However, the nation's success to date in countering nuclear terrorism does not come with a guarantee, success often carries the risk that other challenges will siphon away attention and resources and can lead to the perception that the threat no longer exists.

This report found that U.S. efforts to counter nuclear or radiological terrorism are not keeping pace with the evolving threat landscape. The U.S. government should maintain a strategic focus and effort on combatting terrorism across the national security community in coordination with international partners, State, Local, Tribal and Territorial authorities, the National Laboratories, universities and colleges, and civil society. Developing and sustaining adequate nuclear incident response and recovery capabilities at the local and state levels will likely require significant new investments in resources and empowerment of local response from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy, and National Institutes of Health.

Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. 2024. 158p.

By Norah W. Friar; Molly Merrill-Francis, Elizabeth M. Parker,  Carlos Siordia, Thomas R. Simon

Summary

What is already known about this topic?

Secure firearm storage is associated with lower risk for firearm injuries. Data on state and demographic variation in storage practices might help guide the development and implementation of prevention and evaluation efforts.

What is added by this report?

Among eight states with available data, 18.4%–50.6% of Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System respondents reported keeping a firearm in or around the home. Of respondents with a loaded firearm and a child or adolescent aged ≤17 years in the home, 25.2%–41.4% reported that a loaded firearm was kept unlocked.

What are the implications for public health practice?

State and demographic variation in storage practices highlights the importance of tailored prevention activities to reduce handling of guns by children and youths without adult supervision and other unauthorized persons.

Abstract

Secure firearm storage might help reduce access by children and other unauthorized users and the related risk for injury or death. Information about state-specific prevalence of firearm storage practices can be used to develop secure storage messages and programs; however, such information is often unavailable. Data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, by respondent characteristics, were used to estimate prevalence of keeping firearms in or around the home and related storage practices for eight states that administered the firearm safety module in 2021 or 2022. Overall, 18.4% (California) to 50.6% (Alaska) of respondents reported that a firearm was kept in or around their home. Among those with a firearm in or around the home, 19.5% (Minnesota) to 43.8% (North Carolina) reported that a firearm was stored loaded. Across all eight states, approximately one half of those with a loaded firearm stored at least one loaded firearm unlocked. Among respondents with a child and a loaded firearm in the home, 25.2% (Ohio) to 41.4% (Alaska) reported that a loaded firearm was stored unlocked. Variability in firearm storage practices highlights the importance of local data and suggests opportunities to tailor prevention efforts to specific population groups to reduce risk for firearm handling by children without adult supervision, and other unauthorized persons.

By The U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of 

The Justice Department today announced the publication of Firearm Trafficking Investigations, the third volume of the National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFCTA), a four-part, comprehensive examination of commerce in firearms and the diversion of firearms to illegal markets. This Volume incorporates input from the most comprehensive national survey of the special agents who conduct Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) trafficking investigations to provide the first in-depth analysis of firearm trafficking investigations in more than two decades. This report examines 9,708 closed ATF firearm trafficking investigations initiated between CY 2017 and 2021. In April 2021, Attorney General Garland directed the ATF to undertake its first comprehensive study of criminal gun trafficking, the intentional movement of one or more firearms into the illegal market for a criminal purpose or possession.

“This report makes clear that black-market guns sold by unlicensed dealers without a background check are increasingly being found at crime scenes,” said Attorney General Merrick B. Garland. “Under the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the Justice Department has proposed a new rule to clarify when gun dealers must get licenses and conduct background checks. The Department is also vigorously enforcing the new provisions Congress passed in the Act to prohibit illegal gun trafficking and straw purchasing. This report reminds us of the urgency of our work, and I am grateful to the extraordinary professionals of the ATF who put their lives on the line to help keep our communities safe, and whose tireless work is responsible for the most comprehensive look at America’s crime gun data in over two decades.”

“Thanks to the hard work of ATF, we now have fresh data and cutting-edge insights on the key drivers of illegal firearms trafficking,” said Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco. “Among other trends, the report shows the high frequency of traffickers selling firearms without a license to evade federal law, and the widespread impact of straw purchasers concealing the true recipients of illegally diverted firearms. This report will help agents and prosecutors target investigations, prosecute offenders, and reduce gun violence.”

“This is the most comprehensive survey ever of ATF’s thousands of expert gun trafficking agents to learn about the cases they do,” said ATF Director Steven Dettelbach. “Americans need this data to understand this threat and to better address it.  One striking finding from the data is that individuals illegally engaged in the business of unlicensed firearms dealing are contributing more and more to the flow of firearms into the black market, where we know that felons, gang members, and other violent offenders often get their guns. I want to be crystal clear – illegal firearms trafficking is not a victimless crime. You can’t illegally help to arm violent people and not be responsible for the violence that follows. We fight this public safety battle every day at ATF, as the thousands of ATF cases analyzed in this volume demonstrate. I commend the men and women of ATF and our truly wonderful partners for producing this important study, and also for risking everything to pursue these cases every single day.”

One of the key data-points identified in the analysis is the increased use of intelligence to initiate trafficking investigations. The use of Crime Gun Intelligence Center (CGIC) referrals increased nearly 20% from 2017 to 2021, while the use of Confidential Informants to initiative cases dropped nine percent during that time. This data underscores the value of CGICs, which are law enforcement hubs that focus exclusively on investigating and preventing gun violence in local communities. They bring together, under one roof, the expertise of state and federal investigators, firearms evidence examiners, and intelligence analysts to rapidly collect, analyze, and share information and leads about guns used in violent crimes and to take action to disrupt and dismantle firearm trafficking. ATF operates and supports more than 60 CGICs nationwide.

Another key data point demonstrates the shift in the types of supply lines, or trafficking channels, used to move firearms out of lawful commerce into the illegal market over the past two decades. Investigations involving corrupt federal firearms licensees (FFLs) decreased over the study period with the most frequent channels identified now being illegal, unlicensed firearm dealing by private persons and straw purchasing, which is when someone buys a gun for someone who is prohibited.

The report also identified source-to-market type trends. For instance, 56% of the cases examined involved intrastate trafficking, while 32% involved interstate trafficking. Intrastate trafficking was most prevalent in all regions except the northeast, where interstate trafficking was most prevalent. This reinforces the findings from Volume II, which confirmed that although most — 72% nationally — traced crime guns are recovered in the same state in which they were acquired from an FFL, certain states and cities are targets for firearm traffickers. The cross-jurisdictional nature of this issue — guns purchased in one state and trafficked to another where they’re used in crime — is what led the Attorney General to launch five firearms trafficking strike forces in July 2021.

Additional key findings from the study period include:

         The three most frequently identified violations of federal law in the investigations analyzed during this study included: (1) dealing in firearms without a license, (2) providing false information to an FFL, which is associated with straw purchasing, and (3) possession of a firearm by a convicted felon.

         Firearms trafficked through unlicensed dealers were used in shootings in 368 cases.

         Trafficked firearms were used in homicides in 265 cases, attempted homicide in 222 cases, and aggravated assaults in 446 cases.

         Over half of the firearms trafficked were handguns (nearly 56%), with rifles following in second (nearly 19%).

         The average number of firearms trafficked per case was 16.

         In nearly 58% of the cases, five or fewer firearms were trafficked.

         The majority of traffickers who directly or indirectly facilitated the movement of firearms to illegal markets were white (53%), male (84%), and U.S. citizens (95%).

         The recipients or end users of the trafficked firearms tended to be previously convicted felons (60%) and young adults aged 25 to 34 (48%).

         The annual percentage of juvenile (17 and under) end-users increased almost 10% between 2017 and 2021.

In February 2023, the Department issued Volume II of the NFCTA, Crime Gun Intelligence and Analysis, which presents and analyzes data on crime guns (firearms used in crime) recovered between 2017 and 2021. The analysis reinforces the critical importance of ATF’s unique crime gun tracing authority and highlights the value of data from ATF’s National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN) program.

In May 2022, the Department issued Volume I of the NFCTA, Firearms in Commerce, which presents and analyzes data collected by ATF and other federal agencies related to the manufacture, exportation, and importation of firearms.

To produce the NFCTA, the ATF assembled a team of subject experts from ATF, as well as from academic and related fields. Although ATF issues a variety of public and law enforcement reports and bulletins regarding firearm commerce, trafficking, and related issues every year, it has not undertaken a joint academic study on the scale of the NFCTA in more than 20 years.

Washington, DC: 

By Norah W. Friar, Molly Merrill-Francis, Elizabeth M. Parker, Carlos Siordia, Thomas R. Simon

Secure firearm storage might help reduce access by children and other unauthorized users and the related risk for injury or death. Information about state-specific prevalence of firearm storage practices can be used to develop secure storage messages and programs; however, such information is often unavailable. Data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, by respondent characteristics, were used to estimate prevalence of keeping firearms in or around the home and related storage practices for eight states that administered the firearm safety module in 2021 or 2022. Overall, 18.4% (California) to 50.6% (Alaska) of respondents reported that a firearm was kept in or around their home. Among those with a firearm in or around the home, 19.5% (Minnesota) to 43.8% (North Carolina) reported that a firearm was stored loaded. Across all eight states, approximately one half of those with a loaded firearm stored at least one loaded firearm unlocked. Among respondents with a child and a loaded firearm in the home, 25.2% (Ohio) to 41.4% (Alaska) reported that a loaded firearm was stored unlocked. Variability in firearm storage practices highlights the importance of local data and suggests opportunities to tailor prevention efforts to specific population groups to reduce risk for firearm handling by children without adult supervision, and other unauthorized persons.

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Vol. 73 / No. 23 , June 13, 2024.