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Posts in Crime Analysis
SexWork.DK: a comparative study of citizenship and working hours among sex workers in Denmark

By Rasmus Munksgaard, Kim Moeller & Theresa Dyrvig Henriksen

Sex workers in Europe are increasingly of nonnational origin. The Schengen cooperation allows internal migration within the European Union, but many migrant sex workers originate from outside the EU. While sex workers are already in precarious positions, nonnationals risk deportation, dependent on their citizenship status, and may have debts to smugglers. Consequently, they may be more likely to work longer hours to increase short-term profits. Using a dataset of sex work advertisements from one Danish website (n = 2,594), we estimate the association between inferred citizenship status and a) advertised hours on shift using ordinary least squares regression, and b) the probability of advertising 24/7 availability using a linear probability model. Compared to Danish sex workers, we find migrants advertise almost twice as many hours on shift and are more likely to advertise 24/7 availability. These results shed light on the inequalities that persist between national and nonnational sex workers.

Global Crime, Volume 26, 2025 - Issue 1

Barriers and facilitators to methadone dispensing for opioid use disorder in community pharmacies: A scoping review

By Caroline Shubel , Mary Ava Nunnery , Grace Marley, Bayla Ostrach , Delesha M. Carpenter

Background: Methadone, an evidence-based medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD), is available through prescription at community pharmacies in countries like Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom, but not in the United States (U.S.). The objective of this scoping review was to summarize barriers and facilitators related to dispensing methadone in community pharmacies to inform future implementation efforts in the U.S. Methods: A scoping review was conducted using PubMed, Embase, SCOPUS, and CINAHL. Original research articles related to barriers and/or facilitators around community pharmacy-based methadone dispensing were included. No search limits (year of publication, geographic boundaries) were applied to the search strategy. Two independent researchers screened all articles for eligibility, extracted data, and met to reach consensus. Data were extracted on 12 items, with a particular focus on barriers and facilitators to dispensing methadone in community pharmacies. Results: Forty-one articles were included in the review. The most common barriers to methadone dispensing were workload (n = 14), safety concerns for staff and property (n = 13), concern about patient behavior and interactions (n = 12), financial hardship (for pharmacists and patients) (n = 11), and stigma and discrimination towards patients (n = 11). The most common facilitators were pharmacist training and education (n = 14), positive pharmacist-patient relationships (n = 14), and privacy (n = 10). Conclusions: The findings from this review can be used to address barriers and incorporate known facilitators into future protocols or practice of pharmacy-based methadone dispensing. Further research is needed to identify U.S. and state-specific anticipated needs for pharmacy-based methadone dispensing

:Drug Alcohol Depend Rep. 2026 Jan 29;18:100413. doi: 10.1016/j.dadr.2026.100413. PMID: 41695144; PMCID: PMC12906019

Cannabis use within the United States: Prevalence of cannabis use by state legal status and perceptions of benefit and harm

By Andrew P. Bontemps, Elizabeth S. Hawes, Bailey E. Pridgen, William P. Wagner, Dominique Black, Karen L. Cropsey

Background:Cannabis use has increased in the United States as legalization has spread. While Δ-9 THC remains the most-used federally illegal substance, use of other psychoactive hemp-derived products (Δ-8 THC, Δ-10 THC, HHC, THC-O) has grown. The current study investigated patterns of cannabis use and perceptions of harm and benefit of cannabis across states with differing cannabis laws.



Method

Participants (N=639) were adults endorsing past-90-day cannabis use who lived in one of 15 states selected based on cannabis laws (recreational use, medical use, illegal). Participants completed self-report questionnaires endorsing types of cannabis used, methods of consuming and acquiring cannabis, and ranking of potential harm and benefit of consumption methods.



Results

The majority (N=573; 89.7% of participants) endorsed past-30-day use of Δ-9 THC, regardless of legal status. There was significantly greater use of alternate cannabis forms in states where Δ-9 THC remains illegal (past-90-day: χ2(2)=16.78, p<.001; past-30-day: χ2(2)=9.50, p=.009). Individuals from states with legal recreational cannabis most frequently purchased cannabis legally (52.0%), but high levels of non-legal purchase existed regardless of legal status (47.5%). Participants reported primarily consuming Δ-9 THC through smoking (86.1%), CBD through ingestion (50.5%), and alternative cannabis types through vaping (43.8-57.7%). Average harm rankings were lower for smoking if it was the primary method of consumption.



Conclusions

Individuals purchased and consumed cannabis regardless of legal status and legal status was not significantly associated with harm or benefit rating, controlling for demographic and use data. Individuals appear more likely to purchase through legal means, if available.


Drug and Alcohol Dependence Reports

Available online 14 March 2026, 100431


Local Rules, Global Lessons: How Criminal Governance Shapes Fentanyl Markets in Northern Mexico

By Steven Dudley, et al.


Although traditional synthetic opioid strongholds like the United States and Canada appear to be experiencing a stabilization of their illicit fentanyl market—evidenced by a historic reduction in overdose deaths 1—synthetic opioids continue to expand across the globe, creating widespread health and security concerns. Existing explanations for the rise and stabilization of these markets focus on economic incentives, supply-chain disruption, precursor controls, consumption patterns, and public-health interventions. But the role of organized crime in structuring retail distribution has been largely overlooked. The experience of Mexico’s northern border illustrates that local criminal governance can be a decisive factor in determining where and how new drug markets take root. Fentanyl, for example, has quietly reshaped drug markets in Mexico and upended some widely held assumptions of how larger criminal groups interact with these markets. As local criminal organizations became major producers and exporters of the synthetic opioid to the United States, domestic consumption also emerged in key trafficking corridors. In Tijuana and Mexicali in Baja California, Hermosillo and Nogales in Sonora, and Ciudad Juárez in Chihuahua, the transnational fentanyl economy has taken root locally, generating unprecedented public health and security pressures. This expansion, however, has been uneven, and the criminal actors who control local drug economies are far from monolithic. Across northern Mexico, fragmented local factions—sometimes linked to larger organizations, sometimes operating with considerable autonomy—determine what reaches consumers and under what conditions. Retail fentanyl markets have therefore expanded not simply in response to demand or price signals, but according to thestrategic decisions of local criminal groups. In Baja California, these groups actively promoted fentanyl sales, enabling the market to consolidate. In Sonoran cities and Ciudad Juárez, they restricted distribution, confining consumption to specific user niches.Overall, the impact on the ground has been substantial. The introduction of fentanyl triggered waves of overdose deaths and serious health effects among users. Although there are signs that the crisis may have stabilized in some areas, the risks persist, and the problem remains underestimated in official statistics, limiting the effectiveness of institutional responses that are already ill-equipped to address it. This report aims to provide a deeper understanding of this issue. It examines fentanyl consumption dynamics in the cities mentioned, traces the evolution of the market, and outlines the distribution networks that sustain it. Additionally, it analyzes the models of criminal control over local drug markets and assesses the state’s response to date. A central question running through the analysis is why fentanyl did not spread uniformly across these cities and what role local criminal structures played in that divergence.

Washington DC: Insight Crime, 2026. 66p.

Extortion: The Backbone of Criminal Activity in Latin America

By Lucia Dammert

Extortion is a phenomenon that can be understood from various disciplines, such as economics, criminology, the political sciences, and sociology. Each of these fields of knowledge emphasizes either the system or economic models under which extortionists and victims operate, the short- or long-term relationship sought by establishing simple or complex extortion mechanisms, the political relationship between extortionists and victims, or citizens’ perceptions of the institutional framework, which can serve as a gateway for criminal groups to create ties of protection through extortion. The complexity of extortion, given the different forms it can take and the ease with which it can be confused or linked with other crimes, such as kidnapping or corruption, calls for an open discussion and the establishment of research agendas. This report sheds light on the importance of extortive practices in Latin America. It is based on qualitative research since 2019 that includes 36 interviews of academics, public officials, police, professionals, and victims of extortion in 10 countries,5 along with a review of all official public information and newspapers in five countries during 2019.6 The research also focuses on working groups and reviews official and civil society documents related to extortion as a criminal phenomenon throughout Latin America. The report is part of a long-term research project that focuses on the importance of this criminal activity, its possible links to organized crime organizations, and the policies designed to tackle its impact on businesses and citizens alike.

The report shows that extortive practices are a regionwide trend, albeit with national, specific characteristics. Although it is primarily a non-violent crime, an increasing tendency— specifically linked to practices against women—should make it a priority for the public security agenda. Furthermore, extortion could be depicted as the “perfect crime” since it is hardly reported, let alone investigated. High levels of impunity have allowed for this practice to move into criminal organizations, prisons, and street gangs; also, state officials and even business partners use extortive practices to finance their activities. There is a clear impact on democracy since corruption, fear of crime, and a general sense of freedom from punishment corroborate the idea that there is no rule of law. Efforts toward understanding extortion remain limited and need to take a central role in most national and regional public security policies. 

Fighting Organised Crime: Recovering Illicit Assets in Chile

By Pilar Lizana , Maria Nizzero and Carlos Solar

This paper highlights the critical need for Chile to strengthen its asset-recovery frameworks to combat the growing threat of organised crime and money laundering. It provides an in-depth analysis of the structural challenges hindering Chile's ability to trace, seize and recover illicit assets, and situates these findings within the broader Latin American and global security context. The authors identify key obstacles, including limited risk understanding, weak state governance, gaps in cooperation and information sharing and deficiencies in asset recovery systems. The paper offers actionable recommendations to enhance Chile's institutional resilience and contribute to regional and international security efforts.

Key Recommendations

  • Establish a centralised asset-management office to ensure effective administration and preservation of confiscated assets.

  • Invest in training and capacity building to improve risk understanding and investigative capabilities across public and private sectors.

  • Strengthen public–private cooperation to enhance information sharing and risk mitigation strategies.

  • Increase human, financial and technological resources for agencies combating organised crime and recovering assets.

  • Update legislation to include extended confiscation and non-conviction-based confiscation mechanisms, aligning with international standards.

This paper underscores the importance of sustained reforms and international cooperation to disrupt transnational criminal networks and safeguard democratic governance in Chile and beyond.

Asian Gangs in the United States: A Meta-Synthesis 

By Sou Lee 

The purpose of this study is to gain a holistic understanding of the Asian gang phenomenon through the application of a meta-synthesis, which is seldom utilized within the criminal justice and criminology discipline. Noblit and Hare’s (1988) seven step guidelines for synthesizing qualitative research informed this methodology. Through this process, 15 studies were selected for synthesis. The synthesis of these studies not only identified prevalent themes across the sample, but also provided the basis for creating overarching metaphors that captured the collective experience of Asian gang members. Through the interpretive ordering of these metaphors, a line of synthesis argument was developed in which three major inferences about the Asian gang experience were made. First, regardless of ethnic and geographic differences, the experiences of Asian gangs and their members are similar. Second, although extant literature has applied different theories to explain gang membership for individual ethnic gangs (e.g. Chinese, Vietnamese), this synthesis revealed that the dominant theory for explaining the onset and persistence of Asian gangs is Vigil’s (1988) multiple marginality theory. Finally, in comparison to the broader literature, Asian gangs are more similar than they are different to non-Asian gangs because of their overlap in values.

Thesis, 2016. 127p.

Examining the Social and Psychological Impact of Deepfakes: Rapid Evidence Review

By Crest Advisory

Crest Advisory was commissioned by the Accelerated Capability Environment (ACE) on behalf of the Office of the Police Chief Scientific Adviser (OPCSA) to conduct research examining the social and psychological impacts of deepfakes on victims, with a focus on violence against women and girls (VAWG). This rapid evidence review compiles relevant literature which informed our lines of enquiry and refined the scope of our primary research and engagement, including a public attitudes survey. This document has been iterated throughout the commission to ensure it is up to date at the time of writing (July 2025) and captures relevant emerging literature. Deepfakes refer to any audio, image or video which has been digitally altered using machine learning methods. This includes fraudulent, political, or humorous content, as well as intimate images and pornography. However, in line with the focus of this commission, our evidence review focuses on deepfake violence against women and girls (VAWG). This focus reflects evidence that the vast majority of deepfake videos are sexualised in nature, with women being the disproportionate target of this abuse.

Rikers Island and Mental Health: Pathways Toward Community-Based Diversion and Jail Population Reduction

By

María Fernanda Rodríguez, Nicolás Espejo Yaksic

The IBA assumed the challenge of contributing to a profound and urgent transformation, under the conviction that protecting the rights of children is not only a legal and ethical obligation, but also an essential investment in strengthening the rule of law.

As such, this report highlights existing challenges as well as good practices and proposes a roadmap to advance toward a child-centered justice system, as part of the commitment to leave no one behind within the framework of the 2030 Agenda.

Likewise, the report seeks to be a tool for articulation. A meeting point for governments, the judiciary, ombudsmen, prosecutors, civil society, academia, international organizations, but most importantly, for the voices of children and adolescents.

The preparation of this report involved participants from the justice ecosystem across the region. In line with this collective effort, the report includes a detailed analysis of the drafting process of the Ibero-American Common Rules on Restorative Juvenile Criminal Justice, led by the main justice networks and regional bodies.

The report is divided up into the following sections:

Section 1–Regional Context

Section 2–Access to Justice and the Development Agenda: People-Centered and Child-Centered Justice

Section 3–Principles of Child-Centered Justice: Progress in the Region

Section 4–Vision and Regional Agenda






Findings from the Jefferson County Equitable Fines and Fees Project

By Sarah Picard, Leah Nelson, Rae Walker, Kasey Eickmeyer, and Ellie Wilson

Every year, courts across the United States impose millions of dollars in fines, fees, and restitution on people convicted of traffic violations, misdemeanors, and felonies. Collectively, monetary sanctions and other criminal justice fees are referred to as legal financial obligations or simply court debt. Ostensibly, court debt is intended to sanction offenders, recover the costs of running a court system, raise revenue, and compensate victims of crime. In most jurisdictions, however, court debt is assessed without considering an individual’s ability to pay, and much of what is owed goes uncollected. Estimates suggest that there are approximately $27.6 billion in outstanding obligations. In addition to being an unreliable source of revenue, court debt can have severe and long-standing consequences for those who owe, exposing them to increasing debt, future incarceration related to unpaid debt, and the suspension of voting rights, among other collateral consequences. In jurisdictions across the country, court debt also has a disproportionate effect on the economically disadvantaged, as well as Black and Latino individuals and communities. Many of the equity and collateral consequences described above hold true for court debt assessment and collection in Jefferson County and across Alabama, as documented in a 2018 survey with over 800 Alabama residents who owed court debt. This research attracted the attention of judges in the Tenth Circuit Court in Jefferson County (home to Birmingham) who worked with Leah Nelson, lead researcher on the 2018 survey, and MDRC to develop the Jefferson County Equitable Fines and Fees (JEFF) Project, a multidisciplinary study of the scope and consequences of court debt in the county. With funding from Arnold Ventures, the JEFF Project began in 2022. The findings in this report reflect multiple lines of inquiry, including descriptive and inferential analyses of five years of case-level court data, in-depth interviews with court practitioners, and focus group discussions with individuals who have direct experience with court debt in Jefferson County. Taken together, these analyses point to a system that is neither effective in generating revenue for the court, nor fair, given its outsized impact on Black and indigent people living in poor communities. Over the five years of the study, just under half of the individuals who owed court debt paid in full, with many seeing their debt burden grow over time. The research team also isolated some of the major factors that contribute to debt growth, which include race and economic disadvantage, in addition to factors related to how debt is collected, most notably the practice of assessing a 30 percent late fee on those who do not submit a payment within 90 days. Both court practitioners and individuals who are directly affected viewed the current system as broken, with the latter describing serious financial, emotional, and collateral consequences. Findings from the JEFF Project have already prompted the reconsideration of current practices in Jefferson County, including a pilot project to reduce debt burdens and encourage payments, and the creation of a statewide task force that will examine fines and fees across Alabama. Finally, given that Jefferson County is home to a midsized  city situated in a fiscally and socially conservative state, its social and geographic characteristics make it a useful reference for many cities and counties looking to make changes in their fines and fees systems.

Nobody ever spoke to me like that before.” Improving Interactions Within the Justice System. Recommended practices from national clinical experts convened by the NYC Mayor’s

Nobody ever spoke to me like that before.” Improving Interactions Within the Justice System. Recommended practices from national clinical experts convened by the NYC Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice & Center for Justice Innovation

By The New York City Mayor's Office of Criminal Justice

Most people who are arrested in New York City are not rearrested while they wait for a decision about the outcome of their case. However, a small group are rearrested at substantially elevated rates. And despite their clear need for supportive services, most of this group never receive intensive mental health, emotional health, or behavioral health interventions at any point during their time in the justice system. Instead, most interactions people experience as they journey through the justice system are limited to a series of brief mandated encounters—check-ins, needs assessments, reminders, hearings. Despite their brevity, these encounters represent key intervention points1 with the potential to change individuals’ future well-being and behavior, either negatively or positively, through inevitable influences on their emotional and psychological well-being. As New York City grapples with how to adequately serve people at highest need and highest risk of justice involvement, the New York City Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice and the Center for Justice Innovation convened a national roundtable of clinical experts in Manhattan on October 12, 2023. Participants were asked to distill their expertise and apply it to the range of processes that practitioners most frequently navigate within the criminal court system context. The goal was to identify key opportunities for making these processes as therapeutic and impactful as possible under the constraints of system-based practice—in New York City and across the country. This roundtable focused on the interactions most system-involved people actually have on a daily basis. Specifically, intake screenings, routine monitoring appointments, and other brief mandated interventions are critical opportunities for providing trauma-informed care, which recognizes and responds to the high rates of trauma that people involved in the justice system experience.2 Often, this trauma is experienced both prior to3 and as a result of their involvement in the system.4 Making use of these opportunities could go a long way toward increasing court appearances, reducing rearrests, and increasing engagement in longer-term supportive and therapeutic services. As the city continues to wrestle with the twin challenges of reducing crime and incarceration and improving behavioral health care in the city, this roundtable could not come at a more critical moment. The roundtable sought to connect overall principles to concrete practices. While practitioners often refer to principles such as being trauma-informed, meeting people where they’re at, strengths based, and non-judgmental, what does that actually look like in practice? And how can staff reconcile these most effectively with accountability? What specific words or actions generate increased engagement and connection with people who do not trust systems of any kind, much less the justice system? This brief provides a list of concrete recommendations for providers, distilled from the roundtable discussion. It should be noted that none of these recommendations should be taken as conclusive or unequivocally endorsed by the Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice. Instead, MOCJ is providing a summary of the recommendations provided by experts based on their experiences in the field.

Protecting Children in Online Gaming: Mitigating Risks from Organized Violence

By Galen Lamphere-England

Gaming is now the most profitable form of entertainment worldwide, with over 3.42 billion people playing some form of games, accounting for a market of $187.7 billion engaging across consoles, PCs, and mobile devices.1 Nearly nine in ten children in middle and upper-income countries play online games2 . While online multiplayer games foster social connection, creativity, and communitybuilding, they are also increasingly exploited by violent organizations, ranging from non-state armed groups in conflict-affected settings to hybrid criminal networks. These actors use gaming spaces to propagandize, groom, recruit, and organize, leveraging gaming platforms' social and technical features to target children and young players. This policy brief examines how gaming ecosystems are being exploited to socialize and recruit children to participate in organized violence and provides recommendations for policymakers, practitioners working with children, and the gaming industry to safeguard children in online gaming environments. Online gaming is neither inherently harmful nor a direct cause of violence, but its social and technical infrastructure is being exploited at scale by malign actors. 3 Indeed, as the American Psychological Association framed the issue in a 2020 resolution, “attributing violence to violent video gaming is not scientifically sound and draws attention away from other factors.”4 At the same time, specific harms are affecting children via online gaming today. To protect children and young players, industry leaders, regulators, law enforcement, and practitioners working with children must act now, establishing robust prevention, detection, and response strategies that ensure children can enjoy their right to play and their right to be protected from violence. Gaming’s prosperous future depends on ensuring its spaces remain safe, inclusive, and free from children being targeted by violent actors and organizations. This report provides a series of recommendations to help achieve that aim.

A familiar offence: how households shape juvenile reoffending

By Tobias Auer and Tom Kirchmaier

In this paper we focus on how the criminal history of a household affects juvenile reoffending. Using detailed administrative data from Greater Manchester Police for 2007-2018, we construct a matched sample of 15,548 juvenile first-time offenders. We show causally that juveniles from a household with a previous criminal record are 26.4 to 29.8 percentage points more likely to reoffend within three years, with the greatest additional risk being in the first year after the initial offence. We show that social learning, co-offending by siblings, and differential processing contribute to this effect. Our findings highlight household criminality as an important driver of criminal persistence, underscoring the need to move beyond individual-level predictors and address the criminogenic dynamics within the home.

In this paper we focus on how the criminal history of a household affects juvenile reoffending. Using detailed administrative data from Greater Manchester Police for 2007-2018, we construct a matched sample of 15,548 juvenile first-time offenders. We show causally that juveniles from a household with a previous criminal record are 26.4 to 29.8 percentage points more likely to reoffend within three years, with the greatest additional risk being in the first year after the initial offence. We show that social learning, co-offending by siblings, and differential processing contribute to this effect. Our findings highlight household criminality as an important driver of criminal persistence, underscoring the need to move beyond individual-level predictors and address the criminogenic dynamics within the home.

Automatically Charging Youth as Adults

By Olivia Naugle

The youth justice system was created because youth are different from adults.1 State departments of juvenile justice have purpose clauses affirming that rehabilitation is their primary goal. In the youth justice system, youth have access to developmentally appropriate services that are not available in the adult criminal legal system. Sending youth to the adult criminal justice system, for any offense, harms youth wellbeing and community safety.

Can enhanced street lighting improve public safety at scale?

By John M. MacDonald, Aaron Chalfin, Maya Moritz, Brian Wade, Alyssa K. Mendlein, Anthony A. Braga, Eugenia South

Street crimes are thought to be inBy John M. MacDonald, Aaron Chalfin, Maya Moritz, Brian Wade, Alyssa K. Mendlein, Anthony A. Braga, Eugenia South

Street crimes are thought to be influenced by changes in ambient lighting; yet, most studies have focused on small-scale interventions in limited areas. It remains unclear whether enhanced lighting can improve safety on a larger, jurisdiction-wide scale. This study examined the first 10 months of Philadelphia's citywide rollout of enhanced street lighting. Between August 2023 and May 2024, 34,374 streetlights were upgraded across 13,275 street segments, converting roughly one third of the city's street segments to new LED (light-emitting diode) fixtures that provide clearer and more even lighting. We assessed the impact of these upgrades on total crimes, violent crimes, property crimes, and nuisance crimes. Our findings reveal a 15% decline in outdoor nighttime street crimes and a 21% reduction in outdoor nighttime gun violence following the streetlight upgrades. The streetlight upgrades may have contributed to 5% of the citywide decline in Philadelphia gun violence during the study period. Qualitative data also suggest that resident perceptions of safety and neighborhood vitality improved after new streetlights were installed.

Policy Implications

Although prior research has mostly focused on small-scale implementations, our study demonstrates that improvements in street lighting can significantly reduce crime rates across large urban areas. These results support the adoption of energy-efficient LED street lighting as a crime reduction strategy for cities. Further research is needed to explore the impact of enhanced streetlight interventions on other types of crime and to determine whether the crime reduction benefits are sustained when these upgrades are implemented across the entire City of Philadelphia for an extended period

fluenced by changes in ambient lighting; yet, most studies have focused on small-scale interventions in limited areas. It remains unclear whether enhanced lighting can improve safety on a larger, jurisdiction-wide scale. This study examined the first 10 months of Philadelphia's citywide rollout of enhanced street lighting. Between August 2023 and May 2024, 34,374 streetlights were upgraded across 13,275 street segments, converting roughly one third of the city's street segments to new LED (light-emitting diode) fixtures that provide clearer and more even lighting. We assessed the impact of these upgrades on total crimes, violent crimes, property crimes, and nuisance crimes. Our findings reveal a 15% decline in outdoor nighttime street crimes and a 21% reduction in outdoor nighttime gun violence following the streetlight upgrades. The streetlight upgrades may have contributed to 5% of the citywide decline in Philadelphia gun violence during the study period. Qualitative data also suggest that resident perceptions of safety and neighborhood vitality improved after new streetlights were installed.

Policy Implications

Although prior research has mostly focused on small-scale implementations, our study demonstrates that improvements in street lighting can significantly reduce crime rates across large urban areas. These results support the adoption of energy-efficient LED street lighting as a crime reduction strategy for cities. Further research is needed to explore the impact of enhanced streetlight interventions on other types of crime and to determine whether the crime reduction benefits are sustained when these upgrades are implemented across the entire City of Philadelphia for an extended period

Guns, Lawyers, and Markets: On Economic and Political Consequences of Costly Conflict

By Stergios Skaperdas and Samarth Vaidya

We synthesize research on conflict as a fundamental economic phenomenon, arguing that the implications of the ”dark side of self-interest” have received insufficient attention in economics. We define conflict as interactions where parties choose costly inputs that are adversarially combined against one another — distinct from the collaborative input combinations typical in economic models. We make four key contributions: First, we demonstrate that conflict induces economically significant costs comparable to or exceeding traditional deadweight losses. Second, we explain how these costs vary across contexts based on property rights protection, state capacity, and cultural norms. Third, we show how incorporating conflict into economic models leads to substantially different predictions than traditional models — including inverse relationships between compensation and productivity; distortions in comparative advantage; prices determined by power rather than solely by preferences endowments, and technology. Fourth, attributes of modern states such as centralization in the presence of law, checks and balances, other forms of distributed power, and the bureaucratic form of organization can partly be thought of as restraining conflict and appropriation, with implications for governance and economic development. Overall, in the presence of conflict and appropriation, power considerations cannot be separated from economics and first-best models are not empirically plausible.

 CESifo Working Paper No. 12135, 2025

Cybercrime and strain theory: An examination of online crime and gender.

By Katalin Parti, Thomas Dearden

Purpose: Historically, cybercrime has been seen as a near exclusively male activity. We were interested to learn whether the relationship between strain and crime holds for both males and females.

Methods: We utilized an online survey instrument to collect data from a national sample of individuals (n=2,121) representing the US population by age, gender, race and ethnicity. We asked offending related questions regarding various cybercrimes. In the current study, we use data from 390 individuals who reported a cybercrime activity within the past 12 months.

Results: We find strong support for prior strains correlating with both specific (e.g., illegal uploading) and general cyber-offending. We further examine whether gender interacts with strain. While general strain theory (GST) correlates with cyber-offending for both males and females, we did find a few important differences. Except for lack of trust in others and receiving unsatisfactory evaluation at school or work, there are different variables responsible for online offending for men and women. Parents’ divorcing, anonymity, and online video gaming increase cybercrime offending in women, whereas falling victim to a crime, breaking up with a significant other, and darkweb activity are correlated with cyber-offending for men.

Conclusion: Although GST functions differently by gender when it comes to engaging in cyber-offending, the theory is indeed gender-specific, as different strain variables are responsible for engaging in cyber-offending in women and men. Components of general strain responsible for cyber-offending need to be further studied concerning gender. According to our results, GST is gender-specific, and these variables need to be further studied.

International Journal of Criminology and Sociology13, 211–226

Cybercrime Classification and Measurement

By Hal S. Stern and Daniel L. Cork, Editors

Cybercrime poses serious threats and financial costs to individuals and businesses in the United States and worldwide. Reports of data breaches and ransomware attacks on governments and businesses have become common, as have incidents against individuals (e.g., identity theft, online stalking, and harassment). Concern over cybercrime has increased as the internet has become a ubiquitous part of modern life. However, comprehensive, consistent, and reliable data and metrics on cybercrime still do not exist - a consequence of a shortage of vital information resulting from the decentralized nature of relevant data collection at the national level.

Cybercrime Classification and Measurement addresses the absence credible cybercrime data and metrics. This report provides a taxonomy for the Federal Bureau of Investigation for the purpose of measuring different types of cybercrime, including both cyber-enabled and cyber-dependent crimes faced by individuals and businesses, and considers the needs for its periodic revision. This report was mandated by the 2022 Better Cybercrime Metrics Act (BCMA).

Washington, DC: The National Academies Press., 2025. 160p.

Extended editorial: preventing fraud and cybercrime in an ageing society

By Mark Button  · Vasileios Karagiannopoulos  · Julak Lee  · Joon Bae Suh  · Jeyong Jung

Introduction The nature of crime has been changing globally with technological and other societal developments fuelling a growth in fraud and cybercrime (Button and Cross 2017). The diversity and rapid evolution of a broad range of scams has led to millions across the globe becoming victims of fraud (Federal Trade Commission 2019; ONS 2023a, 2023b). A common belief often promoted in policy circles and some research is that older adults are more vulnerable to fraud (James et al. 2014). This is not so clear cut, however, as in terms of victimisation, the middle aged have been most at risk (see Fig. 1 later). This is changing and there is evidence older adults (65+) are fast becoming the one of the most at risk categories and that they also tend to lose much more than other age groups (see Table 1 later). Indeed, there are a variety of trends fuelling a potential explosion in fraud and cybercrime among older adults unless serious action is taken to reduce the risks that we will shortly explore. It is for this reason we conceived this special edition and the research project that underpins it. To set the context for this edition, it is important to examine the factors fuelling the growth in fraud and cybercrime victimisation among older age groups. We will do this using data from the UK and South Korea. The reason for the selection of these countries is simple. The funding for the project stimulating this edition came from ESRC funding aimed at developing relationships with these two countries 

  Security Journal (2025) 38:40

Cyber‑enabled imposter scams against older adults in the United States

By Lauren R. Shapiro 

This paper evaluated three cyber-enabled imposter scams against older adults using Lifestyle Routine Activity Theory. The frst section examined the motivated ofender’s tools for manipulating older adult targets (social engineering and persuasion) and explained how Artifcial Intelligence could increase exposure and susceptibility of imposter victims. The next section focused on the suitable victim by examining how heuristics and impaired cognitive, physical, and psychosocial abilities contributed to the older adult target’s susceptibility to imposter scam by interfering with the process of rational decision-making. The third section examined ways in which capable guardians, in the form of agencies and laws, protected and helped older adult targets from imposter scams. Recommendations regarding the creation of educational programs that teach older adults how to be safer online (i.e., less suitable victims) through evaluating risks, identifying potential imposter scams, and becoming efcient self-advocators were provided.   

  Security Journal (2025) 38:43